Oscar race takes shape as Kalshi markets reveal early favorites

Earlier today, the official nominees for the 98th Academy Awards were made public. And now that this year’s Oscar nominations are set, Kalshi markets are already signaling clear favorites across major categories. Here’s a closer look at what traders are currently pricing for this year’s ceremony.

Sinners leads the field with 16 nods, the most nominations for any film in Oscar history. However, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is the clear favorite to win Best Picture at 73%.

Traders are pricing Ryan Coogler’s dramatic horror film Sinners to win the Best Picture Oscar at 21%, followed by the Shakespearean drama Hamnet at 5%.

Timothée Chalamet received a Best Actor nomination, becoming the youngest nominee in the category’s history. Chalamet is also the top pick on the Best Actor market to win the Oscar in March at 76% followed by Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another at 14% and Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent at 6%.

The market favors Stellan Skarsgard to win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar at 61% for his performance in Sentimental Value. Sean Penn currently sits at 17% and Benicio del Toro at 10% for their roles in One Battle After Another.

Jessie Buckley is the current favorite to win the Best Actress Oscar for her role as William Shakespeare’s wife Agnes. She is the heavy favorite at 88% followed by Rose Byrne for her role in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You at 11% and Oscar-winning Emma Stone in Bugonia at 2%.

The market for the Best Supporting Actress is pricing Teyana Taylor as the favorite for her performance in One Battle After Another (65%), Amy Madigan, who played the evil Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger’s Weapons and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, who plays a former child star grappling with family pressures in Sentimental Value, are at 17% and 12%, respectively.

Director Paul Thomas Anderson is heavily favored to win the Best Director Oscar at 86%, followed by Coogler for Sinners at 10% and Chloe Zhao for her work on Hamnet at 4%.

The 98^th annual Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien, will air on ABC and Hulu Live on March 15. Click , to see more Oscar markets.

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}