Panama and Croatia meet today in Toronto in a Group L match that neither side can afford to lose. Both teams opened the tournament with defeats, and the loser here will leave BMO Field on the brink of elimination.
Kalshi traders give Croatia a 68% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 21% and Panama at 12%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
What's at stake
Both Panama and Croatia sit on zero points in Group L after losing their openers, and the loser of today's match is all but eliminated. England and Ghana both won their first matches, so a defeat here for either Panama or Croatia would leave them needing a near-miracle on the final matchday to advance.
Panama looking for a first World Cup point
Panama fell 1-0 to Ghana in its opener, undone by a stoppage-time goal from Caleb Yirenkyi that landed with the clock past 94 minutes. The Central Americans controlled long stretches of that match and have never registered a point in four all-time World Cup matches, dating back to their 2018 debut.
Coach Thomas Christiansen called the Ghana loss "cruel," Sports Illustrated reported, and his side will again lean on a compact back three and quick transitions through Cecilio Waterman and Jose Luis Rodriguez.
Croatia looks to bounce back from a defensive letdown
Croatia opened with a 4-2 loss to England, a result that exposed real issues at the back even though Martin Baturina and Petar Musa both scored to level the match before halftime. Zlatko Dalic's side has lost back-to-back World Cup matches only once before.
Luka Modric will make his 200th appearance for Croatia today, becoming only the fourth male player in history to reach that mark. He played just 58 minutes against England before Mateo Kovacic replaced him in midfield, and Kovacic starts alongside him tonight.
Group L advancement odds
According to Kalshi's Group L qualifier market, England and Ghana are both priced at 99% to advance out of the group, while Croatia sits at 84% and Panama trails at just 18%. A Panama win today would scramble that picture heading into the final round of group matches.
The bigger picture
Beyond today's match, Croatia's odds to win the World Cup outright sit at just 0.5%, well behind the tournament favorites on Kalshi, where France leads the market at 20.3% ahead of Argentina at 14.4%. Panama, currently trading at 0.1%, remains a deep long shot to win the tournament, a reflection of how much ground the Group L minnow would still need to make up even with a win today.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
