Rays vs. Guardians odds: Kalshi traders call ALCS Game 4 a coin flip

The Cleveland Guardians are two wins away from the World Series, and they can push the Tampa Bay Rays to the brink Friday night at Progressive Field, if the weather cooperates.

Cleveland took a 2-1 series lead with a 3-2 win in Game 3. The Guardians have won five of their last six playoff games since trailing the Chicago White Sox 2-0 in the AL Division Series.

Across from them is a Rays team that led the American League with 98 wins and swept the Yankees in the ALDS. Tampa Bay now needs at least one win in Cleveland to send the series back home.

Traders aren't picking a side. Kalshi market has Game 4 at a dead-even 50%, with the first pitch set for 8:00pm ET.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is the Official Prediction Market Partner of the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, and Boston Red Sox.}

Thursday’s Game 3 came down to one swing. Trailing 2-1 in the fifth, rookie center fielder Petey Halpin crushed a go-ahead, two-run homer, and his bat flip nearly matched the ball for height. Those were the last runs of the afternoon.

Starter Gavin Williams struck out nine over five innings. He’s now 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 33 strikeouts across 16 ⅔ postseason innings. Cleveland then retired 16 of the Rays’ final 17 batters, as relievers Daniel Espino, Erik Sabrowski, Hunter Gaddis and Cade Smith allowed just one baserunner over the last four innings. Smith closed it out with a four-out save. He stranded the tying run at third in the eighth by striking out Yandy Díaz on the 10th pitch of the at-bat, then retired the side in order in the ninth.

Strikeouts are becoming a real problem for Tampa Bay. Rays hitters struck out 13 times in Game 3, nearly matching their total of 14 from the first two games combined. Junior Caminero struck out four times and is still looking for his first career postseason home run after hitting 42 in the regular season. Chandler Simpson provided all of the Rays’ offense with a two-run triple in the fourth, and Tampa Bay finished with just three hits.

Tampa Bay hands the ball to Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA), who has had Cleveland’s number. In two starts against the Guardians, both before the trade deadline, he allowed seven hits and no runs over 13 innings. His only postseason outing was cut short: he lasted 3 ⅔ innings against the Yankees in the ALDS before exiting after being hit by a line drive.

Cleveland is going with a bullpen game. Veteran Shawn Armstrong, who hasn’t allowed a run in four appearances this postseason, will open. Lefty Joey Cantillo is the likely option for bulk innings behind him.

Neither offense has done much damage, and traders expect that to continue. The total sits at 6.5 runs, with the over trading at 51%. Traders give the Rays just a 36% chance to win by two or more runs.

Rain has already shaped this series. Game 3 was moved up five hours, from 6pm to 1pm ET, to get ahead of the weather. Game 4 went the other way: its start was pushed back two hours to 8pm ET after the Milwaukee Brewers swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.

Rain is expected in Cleveland throughout the day, but forecasts show a window between 8 and 11pm ET that could allow the game to be played. If it slides to Saturday, the Rays could turn to Game 1 starter Drew Rasmussen and Cleveland to Foster Griffin.

Game 3 moved the series market more than any game so far. Kalshi traders now give Cleveland a 58% chance to win the ALCS, a 19-point jump. Before Game 3, the Rays were 55% favorites.

A win tonight would put the Guardians one victory from their first American League pennant since 2016. A Rays win would turn the series into a tied affair again.

Whoever wins the pennant will face a well-rested Milwaukee team. After sweeping the two-time defending champions, the Brewers are 58.1% to win the World Series on Kalshi.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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