Just one day after President Donald Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, Roger Ver has emerged as the frontrunner in Kalshi’s 2025 Trump pardon market.
Ver, also known as “Bitcoin Jesus,” now has a 21% chance of receiving a pardon from Trump this year, up sharply from the mid-teens earlier in the week. The move makes Ver the leading contender, after overtaking the previous frontrunner, Sean “Diddy” Combs.
The renewed attention also follows a recent New York Times report that Ver reached a tentative $48 million settlement with the Justice Department to resolve tax-evasion charges. Prosecutors accused him of concealing cryptocurrency gains before renouncing U.S. citizenship in 2014. Under a deferred-prosecution agreement, the charges could be dropped if Ver complies with the terms.
The case has drawn notice inside Trump’s orbit. Ver reportedly paid longtime Trump ally Roger Stone $600,000 for lobbying help and hired attorneys with ties to the president’s network. Those connections, along with Trump’s broader rollback of crypto enforcement, have helped drive Ver’s odds higher.
Ver’s contract gains reflect a broader view among Kalshi traders that the administration may continue extending clemency to high-profile crypto figures. Zhao’s pardon appears to have reinforced expectations that Trump’s next move could again favor the industry.
Bankman-Fried’s brief bounce
However, the same cannot be said for Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the collapsed FTX exchange. After Zhao’s pardon, his contract briefly spiked into the mid-teens before falling back to 11%. According to The Street, traders initially speculated Trump might extend clemency to “SBF” as part of a wider crypto détente, but those expectations have faded, at least for now.
Bankman-Fried was convicted on seven counts of fraud and money laundering in 2023 and sentenced to 25 years in prison in March 2024. He forfeited more than $11 billion as part of the judgment. Traders appear to view his case as politically toxic despite renewed interest in crypto-related pardons.
Diddy defies the odds
Meanwhile, Sean “Diddy” Combs remains a wildcard. Despite a Deadline report that the White House shelved any pardon plans over fears of backlash from Trump’s base, his Kalshi contract rose two points to 18%.
Combs is appealing a four-year federal sentence on sex-trafficking and racketeering charges. Sources told Deadline that Trump aides feared “catastrophic” political fallout if the president granted clemency, but traders seem unconvinced the story is over.
Crypto and clemency
The broader backdrop is Trump’s friendlier posture toward the digital-asset industry. Since returning to office, his administration has rolled back enforcement cases initiated under Biden, including S.E.C. lawsuits against Coinbase and other exchanges, according to the New York Times. Earlier this year, Trump pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht and the BitMEX co-founders, signaling an ongoing alignment with crypto’s populist base.
With Zhao’s pardon now complete, Ver’s rise suggests that traders see a pattern taking shape: crypto figures remain near the top of Trump’s clemency list.
Others linger in single digits
Beyond the top three, Ghislaine Maxwell (9%), Steve Bannon (8%), and Eric Adams (8%) are also in the pardon mix.
The list seems to reflect what traders see as Trump’s evolving priorities: a mix of personal alliances, high-profile figures, and public attention. Market pricing shows that traders continue to weigh both political relationships and media visibility when assessing potential clemency decisions.
Kalshi’s current pardon leaderboard:
As of Friday, crypto names dominate the list. Whether Trump grants another such pardon or pivots to a political figure remains uncertain, but traders appear confident that forgiveness is still priced in Bitcoin.
Sources: The Street, Oct. 24, 2025; The New York Times, Oct. 9, 2025; Deadline, Oct. 21, 2025.
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