Bannon’s pardon odds nearly double

Steve Bannon’s chances of receiving a presidential pardon have jumped sharply on Kalshi after President Donald Trump pardoned Rudy Giuliani and other allies accused of trying to overturn the 2020 election.

Following the White House announcement late Sunday, the Kalshi market “Who will President Trump pardon this year?” nearly doubled Bannon’s probability, rising from about 6 percent to 11 percent by Monday morning. The increase was one of the largest single-day moves since the contract opened in January.

The repricing came only days after Bannon told a crowd at the Conservative Partnership Institute that he and others could face prison if Republicans fail to win control of Congress in 2026 or the presidency in 2028.

“If we lose the midterms and we lose 2028, some in this room are going to prison, myself included,” Bannon said Wednesday, according to Newsweek.

Bannon has long argued that his prosecutions are politically motivated. Trump pardoned him in 2021 on federal fraud charges tied to the “We Build the Wall” campaign, which raised millions to privately build sections of the U.S.–Mexico border barrier. A year later, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg filed a state case based on the same allegations, which the federal pardon did not cover.

As Politico reported, Bannon pleaded guilty in February 2025 to one count of scheming to defraud donors. The deal spared him additional jail time and imposed a three-year conditional discharge. Prosecutors said the outcome protected charitable donors, while Bannon’s lawyers called it politically driven.

He also served four months in 2024 for contempt of Congress after refusing to comply with a subpoena from the House committee investigating the January 6 attack.

His recent remarks about “urgency” and “more action” came amid a moment of renewed visibility, as Trump allies close ranks during the ongoing government shutdown and mounting political pressure in Congress.

Traders on Kalshi appear to have interpreted the weekend pardons as a signal that Bannon could be next, given his proximity to Trump and history of loyalty.

Until now, most attention in the pardon markets centered on crypto executives. In late October, Kalshi News reported that “Bitcoin Jesus” Roger Ver had become the frontrunner after Zhao’s pardon. Ver’s chances climbed above 20 percent as traders anticipated further leniency toward figures in the digital-asset industry.

Those expectations have since shifted. The Giuliani and Meadows pardons have pushed political allies to the forefront, while crypto and celebrity names have moved back to single-digit territory.

As of Monday morning, Ver, Sean Combs, Sam Bankman-Fried, and others remain far behind.

The renewed attention on Bannon highlights how presidential pardons have become both political signals and measurable market events. Each new clemency announcement has recalibrated Kalshi’s pricing, reflecting how participants interpret loyalty, timing, and influence within Trump’s orbit.

For Bannon, that dynamic carries particular weight. Once Trump’s campaign chief and now a prominent media voice, he continues to frame himself as central to the former president’s agenda. His growing presence during the ongoing government shutdown has kept him visible in the national conversation.

Kalshi traders now appear to believe that visibility and loyalty may determine who receives clemency next.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Sources: Newsweek, Nov. 7, 2025; NPR, Nov. 10, 2025; Politico, Feb. 2, 2025; Kalshi News, Oct. 24, 2025.
Image Source: Elekes Andor

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