Senate odds soar as House passes 'Epstein Files' bill

The House of Representatives voted today to pass the bill requiring the release of the Epstein records, delivering a near unanimous result of 427-1 with Clay Higgins (R-LA), the lone “Nay” vote . The outcome was striking given the uncertainty surrounding the bill only weeks ago. During the government shutdown, traders on Kalshi were assigning the bill only about a ~60% chance of passing.

Momentum surged once the government reopened. The market tracking how many House votes the bill would receive began shifting upward only in the final days, with the sharpest move coming Sunday after Trump surprisingly publicly endorsed the bill. (Link to the last article)

A second market showed how unsettled things were heading into the vote. Traders were split 50 / 50 on whether anyone would oppose the bill just yesterday.

Will anyone vote NO on releasing the Epstein files

That pricing reflected the GOP’s earlier opposition and the uncertainty over how Trump’s last-minute reversal would influence Republican vote. For weeks, Republicans were nearly unanimous in opposing the measure. When the discharge petition began circulating, only four Republicans signed it, and several leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson, echoed Trump’s claim that the bill was unnecessary and a Democratic hoax or trap.

Everything shifted after Trump abruptly reversed course and urged Republicans to support the measure. What had been near-unified GOP opposition flipped into a near-unanimous vote at the end of the day. No Republican or Democrat opposed the bill, an outcome that would have seemed improbable only a short time earlier.

With the House vote complete, attention turns to the Senate, where the path ahead is less predictable. The Kalshi market titled “How many Senate votes will the bill to unseal Epstein records receive?” shows that traders are forecasting the likeliest outcomes being above 77 votes at ~85c with under 50 votes only being priced at ~6c.

However, there is precedent for resistance in the Senate. In September 2025, the Senate voted 51-49 to block a procedural amendment from Chuck Schumer that would have required the release of Epstein-related records. Majority Leader John Thune also declined to commit to scheduling votes, arguing the Justice Department had already released significant materials.

This backdrop makes the current shift notable. Several GOP senators have signaled openness to supporting the bill this time, including Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). Murkowski (R-AK), a frequent Republican Trump critic, said it is “about time” for the full Epstein files to be released. Tuberville (R-AL), a strong Trump ally now running for governor in Alabama, has also indicated he would vote for the resolution if it comes to the floor.

These public statements from Republican Senators along with the momentum from the House bill getting near-unanimous support are likely making the highest vote total bracket the highest priced one.

Even if the bill clears the Senate, Attorney General Pam Bondi will determine how much of the Epstein material becomes public. The legislation gives her authority over timing, processing, and redactions.

Bondi has said some information cannot be disclosed due to legal and privacy restrictions. Reporting indicates she has told Trump that his name appears multiple times in the files, and additional reporting has shown that the FBI previously redacted his name from internal versions of the documents.

Her discretion is central to the bill’s impact. She could redact names tied to ongoing investigations, intelligence considerations, or statutory protections. Supporters say these safeguards are routine. Critics worry that Bondi could limit politically sensitive disclosures. The Kalshi market tracking whether the files ultimately become public reflects both legislative and implementation uncertainty.

Trump said yesterday he would sign a bill requiring the Justice Department to release the Epstein files if Congress passes it.

Whether this represents a genuine policy shift or a political calculation remains unclear. Trump may believe the bill will pass with veto-proof margins with or without his support. He may want to distance himself from the issue after days of damaging headlines. Or he may assume Bondi’s redaction authority will shield him from exposure.

Regardless, traders now place the odds of Trump releasing the files before 2026 at roughly 50 / 50, a market that’s been fairly volatile in the past. A signature does not guarantee immediate release, and timing remains uncertain (evidenced by how traders are pricing the timing brackets of Trump releasing the Epstein files differently). What is clear is that Trump appears eager to move the Epstein conversation out of the news cycle. He has repeatedly expressed discomfort discussing Epstein or their past association.

Trump’s impeachment odds on Kalshi have climbed above 50% in recent weeks. Several factors appear to be driving the move: Democratic overperformance in the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey elections, additional reporting linking Trump to Epstein, and rising political pressure surrounding the bill.

If the Epstein files contain unflattering information or prompt new reporting, the impeachment market may shift again. Traders will be watching closely as the Senate takes up the bill and the President signs (or doesn’t sign the bill).

Follow Benjamin Freeman on X: @BenwFreeman1
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

Image Source

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}