Shelton vs. Alcaraz Odds: Alcaraz favored in US Open quarterfinal

Ben Shelton was less than a year old the last time an American man won a Grand Slam title. 

If he wishes to end the drought, the top-ranked American will need to find his way through tournament favorite Carlos Alcaraz when they meet in the quarterfinals on Tuesday. 

Kalshi traders make Alcaraz a sizable favorite, priced at 78% to advance to the semifinals. Shelton, who has never beaten the Spaniard, is priced at 22%. 

The pair will take the court as the second match in the US Open’s night session in Arthur Ashe Stadium on Tuesday, following the all-American women’s quarterfinal featuring Jessica Pegula and Emma Navarro. 

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is a proud partner of the US Open.}

Carlos Alcaraz returned to the US Open as the reigning champion, but he hadn’t played competitive tennis for more than four months coming into the tournament. Forced to step away from the tour with a wrist injury, Alcaraz missed the middle two majors, Wimbledon and Roland Garros. 

But he’s back now, and although questions about the level he could produce were plentiful at the start of the tournament, they’ve all but dissipated as he’s shown he’s seemingly at full strength. 

Kalshi traders expect the Spaniard will have his highest level on Tuesday night too. Priced at 78% to win the match, traders also price Alcaraz at 62% to win by more than 1.5 sets. In other words, traders make the probability of a 3-0 or 3-1 Alcaraz victory, 62%. 

Coming into his matchup with Shelton, Alcaraz has dropped just one set in his first four matches. In his most recent victory, he dropped serve just one time across three sets, easily dispatching American Tommy Paul in the fourth round.

Shelton’s coming off his most comprehensive victory too, defeating a resurgent Stefanos Tsitsipas in a straight-set win in which he faced zero break points. 

If both are at their peaks, sets could be tight, with each player ranked inside the top-10 by serve rating, respectively over the last 52 weeks. However, it’s the return game that will likely separate the pair. 

Although the American possesses a monstrous serve, he’s a historically poor returner, ranking 77th in return rating and 78th in return games won during the same time period. On the other hand, Alcaraz ranks third in both return rating and return games won over the stretch. 

The skill mismatch has been apparent in their three career meetings, all of which have been won by Alcaraz. During those encounters Shelton has managed to break serve just two times total, while Alcaraz has broken the Shelton serve six times. In those eight sets of play, Alcaraz has won all but one. 

In order to pull off an upset, Shelton said he’ll need to play “special tennis.” 

Kalshi traders price Carlos Alcaraz US Open title odds at 57% as of Tuesday morning, up 30% since the tournament opened and the draw has thinned. 

In his first four matches, the world No. 3 has answered every test, piecing together comprehensive victories and managing to spend less than three hours on court in each match on his road to a quarterfinal clash with Shelton. 

According to Kalshi traders, the biggest threat to defending his crown remains Alexander Zverev, who has maintained the second best odds to win the title since the draw was released without Jannik Sinner. 

Yet, while Zverev has had the easier draw by opponent ranking, his path to the quarterfinals has been anything but smooth sailing. He needed nearly five hours in each of his first two matches, barely scraping by in five sets against Lorenzo Sonego and Quentin Halys. 

Priced at 27% to win his first US Open title, the 6-foot-6 German has begun to find his rhythm though, defeating Alejandro Tabilo and Luciano Darderi in straight-set victories to set up a quarterfinal clash with Botic van de Zandschulp. In the upcoming matchup, Zverev is an 88% favorite according to Kalshi traders. 

Without Taylor Fritz or Flavio Cobolli in his half of the draw, Kalshi traders make Zverev the most likely US Open finalist with odds of 73% ahead of his quarterfinal matchup. The next most likely are Alcaraz and Shelton at 66% and 15% respectively, ahead of their Tuesday meeting. 

Shelton’s odds of lifting the trophy and ending the drought for American men is 9%, while fellow American Frances Tiafoe holds the fourth best odds at 4%.

Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Follow Logan Hitchcock on X: LHitch09 |
Image Source: Mike Lawrence, USTA

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with the Association of Tennis Professionals.}