Shutdown markets swing as Senate plans rare Sunday vote

Prediction markets are moving sharply this evening as Washington signals the first real progress in the fight to end the record-breaking government shutdown.

On Sunday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the chamber plans to vote on a new funding proposal, a rare weekend move that sent Kalshi traders scrambling to reprice expectations for how long the impasse will last.

(Click here for Kalshi’s government shutdown markets.)

The Senate’s plan, outlined in CNN and CBS News, would pair a short-term stopgap measure extending government funding through January with three long-term appropriations bills covering the Departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and military construction, along with the legislative branch.

The proposal includes more than $1 billion in new security funding for Congress and the Capitol Police, a symbolic olive branch to Democrats after weeks of bitter negotiations. But it drops one of the party’s top demands: an extension of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies. Instead, Democrats are being offered a guaranteed future Senate vote on that issue.

Kalshi’s shutdown duration market shows the sharpest intraday move since the shutdown began in September.

The forecast for the shutdown’s total length now sits at 44 days, up slightly from Friday but down from weekend highs that implied a late-November reopening. Contracts pricing a shutdown of more than 44 days fell to 41%, down 40 points in one day, while more than 45 days dropped to 30%.

The repricing reflects growing belief that a deal is not only likely but imminent. The government has been closed for 39 days, meaning traders now expect the standoff to end within the week.

Market volume has topped $40 million, underscoring the intensity of real-time speculation around each Capitol Hill headline.

Another key Kalshi market, tracking Senate votes, shows traders parsing the politics of the upcoming roll call.

Moderates Angus King and Lisa Murkowski are now priced above 90% to vote “yes,” signaling strong expectations for a bipartisan resolution. But Chuck Schumer has tumbled to 14%, reflecting speculation that he may step back from the procedural motion to advance the bill, allowing vulnerable Democrats to take the lead.

Traders are indicating that at least five Democrats will cross the aisle, the number needed to help Republicans invoke cloture and move the measure forward.

Momentum in the upper chamber has spilled into Kalshi’s House vote market, where traders are pricing a rapid follow-up once the Senate acts.

The probability that the House votes before Nov. 15 climbed to 34%, while longer-dated options such as before Nov. 18 or before Nov. 24 saw double-digit declines. That repricing implies traders expect the shutdown to end by mid-November.

The breakthrough comes after days of pressure on both parties as furloughs deepened, air travel delays mounted, and the president’s approval ratings fell. Several Democratic senators reportedly signaled over the weekend that they would accept the new framework if it guaranteed a future vote on health care subsidies, even if it fell short of their broader goals.

Thune said earlier Sunday that the first vote could happen “today.” Democrats met behind closed doors Sunday evening to decide whether to back the motion, with reporters describing members as “tight-lipped” entering the caucus room, according to CBS News.

If the Senate advances the measure, it would return to the House for final passage before heading to President Trump’s desk, a process that could take several days but would mark the first clear path toward reopening since the standoff began.

With the Senate poised to act and traders predicting a deal by midweek, Kalshi markets show confidence that Washington’s deadlock is finally breaking.

Kalshi forecast: 44-day shutdown
House vote odds: 34% before Nov. 15
Senate vote window: as early as Sunday night

Sources: CNN, Nov. 9, 2025; CBS News, Nov. 9, 2025
Image Source: Harold Mendoza

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