Solana surged back above $100 this week, leading Kalshi traders to raise their expectations about how much further SOL can climb in 2026.
The seventh largest cryptocurrency by market cap has jumped more than 15% in the last week of trading, according to data from CoinGecko, outpacing its major peers Bitcoin and Ethereum, which gained only 0.9% and 2.1%, respectively, over the same time period.
The rally has dramatically changed expectations for Solana’s end of year performance, with Kalshi traders boosting the probability that SOL will claim higher price targets and finish the year above $100.
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Solana surged, but traders see room to run
Solana’s recent rally pushed it over $100 for the first time since February, but it may not stop there.
Kalshi traders now price the likelihood of Solana eclipsing $150 during 2026 at 38%, up 10% in the last week of trading.
Plus, expectations for even larger moves throughout the duration of the year have increased as well. Traders now price a move above $160 at 35% and a stretch to more than $190 at 18%, as SOL climbed throughout the week.
The increasingly bullish outlook comes amid a major shift in Solana’s economic future.
On Friday, Solana validators passed a new Solana governance proposal, SGP-0002, which will accelerate the rate at which Solana’s issuance rate declines, doubling the disinflation rate from 15% to 30%.
In other words, the proposal will speed up the timeline for Solana’s network to reach its desired inflation rate of 1.5%, now slated to be reached in 2029 instead of 2032, according to a report from The Defiant. This means that the rate at which new SOL tokens are created and issued will be slowed over the next six years.
SOL's boosted end-of-year forecast
Traders are not just repricing the likelihood of Solana reaching higher targets during 2026, but odds have also improved for the token’s final end-of-year range.
In Kalshi's “Price of Solana by end of 2026?” market, traders now forecast an end-of-year price of $124.40, an increase of more than $22 in the last week of trading.
That forecast comes on the heels of a significant increase in odds for Solana finishing the year at $100 or above, which is now priced at 74% by Kalshi traders, up 23% in the last week.
While traders favor the token finishing the year above $100, they make the chances of a much higher finish like above $150, much lower.
Odds for a finish at $150 or above sit at just 20%.
A positive year in reach?
Prices for nearly all major cryptocurrencies have trended lower during 2026, but Solana’s recent movement has reinvigorated odds for SOL to finish the year with a positive return.
The token has gained nearly 39% in the last month of trading, recently changing hands around $103.27. At that marker, the token is only down around 17% year-to-date according to CoinGecko, placing it within striking distance of a move above $125, its approximate opening price for the year.
As a result, traders on Kalshi have boosted the odds of Solana finishing with a positive rate of return this year to 41%.
At those odds, Solana now leads all major cryptocurrencies tracked by Kalshi traders as the most likely to finish 2026 with a positive return, ahead of Chainlink (LINK) at 30% and Ripple (XRP) at 25%.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which recently surged above $80,000 before retracing, is priced at 26% to finish the year with a positive return.
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