Bitcoin is knocking on the door of $80,000 following one of its sharpest rallies in years, but Kalshi traders are expecting it has more room to run as August draws to a close.
The world’s leading cryptocurrency has now climbed nearly 24% in the last week of trading according to data from CoinGecko, pulling it to its highest price since May as it trades around $79,372 on Monday.
The sudden move has dramatically changed expectations for where BTC may trade next, and how strongly it could close the month.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Bitcoin surged, but still has room to run in August
As Bitcoin traded below $65,000 last week, traders priced odds of a late August surge pushing BTC to $80,000 at just 3%, making the feat incredibly unlikely. But positive comments from President Donald Trump in support of crypto and increased ETF demand have helped spark the market, completely flipping trading sentiments as the month comes to a close.
Amid Bitcoin's rise, Kalshi traders now price odds of BTC hitting $80,000 at 87% on Monday morning. Further marks, like a stretch to $82,500, are also favored at 55% at the time of writing.
The odds represent boosts of 84% and 48% respectively in the last week of trading.
Despite the recent strength, traders do not foresee a further move to $85,000, pricing the marker at just 27% odds at the time of writing.
Bulls revive Bitcoin's end of year forecast
The BTC spike has also impacted traders' end of year projections for the top crypto asset, pulling up the probability of higher price ranges in Kalshi's “Bitcoin price at the end of 2026” market.
Traders now expect Bitcoin to finish the year between $75,000-$79,999.99 or $80,000-$84,999.99, with the ranges trading at 11.5% and 11%, respectively on Monday.
The repricing has altered odds of lower ranges as well, dipping the previously favored range of $65,000-$69,999.99 to 8.4%, down from 15.1% last week.
Analysts told CNBC that the recent price action should rewire market expectations as the year comes to a close, saying that “investors should now be positioning for a move to $100,000 by year-end 2026.”
That enthusiasm is reflected in the year-end range probabilities, which saw significant movement over the course of the last week, with odds of BTC finishing the year in the respective ranges priced from $100,000 to $109,999.99 each more than doubling.
More optimistic projections, like BTC closing at $150,000 or higher, got a boost as well, with traders now pricing it at 2.6%. The odds of Bitcoin reaching that marker at all by January 2027 are just 7%.
Bullish before bearish
Another critical piece of evidence in favor of the market sentiment shifting more bullish comes from Kalshi's “Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?” market.
Last week, Kalshi traders priced BTC dropping to $50,000 before a resurgence to $100,000 at nearly 53%. In other words, traders favored the likelihood that Bitcoin had another leg down before it could once more reclaim six figures and charge back towards its all-time high of $126,080.
But since its recent surge, traders now strongly favor Bitcoin hitting $100,000 before a drop to $50,000. As it stands, odds of hitting $50,000 first have fallen 28% in the last week of trading, now priced at just 25%.
From its Monday trading price, Bitcoin would need to jump another 25.8% to hit $100,000. A fall to $50,000 though would require a drop of more than 37%.
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