Now that Darline Graham Nordone, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, has announced that she’s running for South Carolina’s Senate seat, Kalshi traders have become significantly more confident in her chances of winning the Republican primary.
Kalshi's South Carolina Republican primary market now gives Nordone a 72% chance of winning the Republican primary after announcing her candidacy on Monday.
Nordone's announcement
Nordone is currently serving as the interim Senator following her brother's sudden passing earlier this month. She was sworn into the seat by Sen. Chuck Grassley on Tuesday, July 14.
Then on Monday, The New York Times reported that Nordone announced she would seek to continue serving as South Carolina's senator during an interview on Fox News with host Sean Hannity.
“I feel like I can do it,” Nordone told Hannity. “I feel an inner peace about it.”
So far, traders seem to think that President Donald Trump's endorsement of Nordone's candidacy could help push her across the finish line to win the Republican nomination. President Trump posted on his Truth Social account that she should succeed her brother as Senator in an interim capacity. He also encouraged Nordone to run in the special primary election on Aug. 11.
"Darline, who comes from an absolutely incredible family, has been a WINNER all of her life and, should she accept, has my Complete and Total Endorsement in the Special Election for U.S. Senate in South Carolina," President Trump wrote.
Other candidates
Fry was in the lead on the market until Nordone stepped in to serve as the interim senator for her brother’s seat at a top price of 70.1%. His market price gradually declined after Nordone was appointed interim senator.
The field of candidates in South Carolina's special Republican primary has also narrowed a bit since then. Rep. Nancy Mace had been publicly considering a run for the Senate seat, but she announced Monday that she would not enter the race.
She posted on her X account that she decided not to run for the Senate “because I have some unfinished business. Since I stood on that House floor, I’ve been fighting for every woman and girl who was told to stay silent. I want justice – and that day is coming.”
The winning party
No matter which candidate is chosen to run for South Carolina’s Senate seat in the upcoming primary, traders seem pretty sure that South Carolina will still elect a Republican.
Kalshi's general election market gives the Republican nominee an 87% chance of winning the seat, compared with 15% for Democratic nominee Dr. Annie Andrews.
Following her campaign announcement and Trump's endorsement, Nordone has become the overwhelming favorite in Kalshi's Republican primary market.
Kalshi’s American Power Index (KPOW)
KPOW currently sits at +2.20 R, reflecting a slight Republican lean. The SC Senate race is a microcosm of that dynamic. Republicans are heavily favored to hold the seat, but Democrats maintain an 83% chance of controlling the House and a 58% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election, keeping the broader balance of power very much in play.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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