Prediction markets are pricing in an early favorite to succeed the late Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina's Republican primary: his sister, Darline Graham Nordone, the state's newly sworn-in interim senator.
Kalshi's Republican primary market currently favors Nordone at 65%, followed by Rep. Ralph Norman at 23% and Rep. Russell Fry at 10%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Semafor reported that Nordone is considering running for a full term, citing three people familiar with internal party deliberations. President Trump has already signaled his support: he posted on Truth Social that if Nordone runs, she "has my Complete and Total Endorsement in the Special Election," adding "RUN, DARLINE, RUN!"
Norman has also indicated his intent to run for a full term once Nordone completes her brother's term. Bloomberg reported that he has already discussed his candidacy with President Trump and plans to announce his campaign soon.
Fry is also moving toward a campaign. Politico's Meredith Lee Hill reported that the South Carolina representative "is taking steps towards mounting a campaign to claim the Republican ballot line."
Five Republicans familiar with the discussions told Politico that Fry has held private conversations about the race and has spoken to White House operatives, with some viewing him as a top contender for Trump's endorsement.
Norman recently ran for governor but finished third in the Republican primary, which was ultimately won by Attorney General Alan Wilson.
Graham's office announced his death on Sunday, July 12. According to The New York Times, Graham had recently returned from a trip to Ukraine when emergency responders were called to his Capitol Hill residence after he experienced chest pains.
The Washington, D.C. medical examiner’s office determined that Graham died from “an aortic dissection, a tear in the main artery that carries blood from the heart, caused by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease.”
Nordone was sworn into office Tuesday to serve the remainder of Graham's term. The Associated Press reported that while Nordone has not been politically active in her own right, she is "woven deeply into her brother's personal and political biography." After both parents died within just over a year of each other, Graham, then 22, became legal guardian for his 13-year-old sister.
She made frequent campaign appearances throughout Graham's Senate career and appeared in a 2014 campaign ad when he ran for a third term.
With the incumbent advantage of her Senate seat and Trump's early backing, traders currently view her as the front-runner for the Republican nomination.
General election outlook
The New York Times reports that a special primary will be held Aug. 11, the second Tuesday after the filing deadline. Candidates may file between July 21 and July 28. A majority is required to win the nomination; if none is reached, a runoff will follow on Aug. 25.
The market for the South Carolina Senate winner shows the Republican party candidate with a price of 84%, followed by Democratic candidate Annie Andrews at 15%.
Kalshi’s American Power Index (KPOW)
The South Carolina race is also tracked by Kalshi's American Power Index (KPOW), which shows Republicans at +2.10. The index measures real-time partisan power by blending current seat counts with market projections of future electoral outcomes and shutdown risk. Graham's death has had little visible impact — South Carolina is expected to stay Republican regardless of who wins the primary.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Tim Scott
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
