As the weeks-long government shutdown finally wound down, a cascade of political shifts transformed the Epstein transparency effort from a procedural long-shot into one of the most closely watched votes of the session. The turning point came when Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ) was sworn in after a prolonged delay, providing the crucial 218th signature needed to force a vote on the Epstein Files Transparency Act.
In near lockstep with developments around the shutdown itself, Kalshi traders reacted quickly. On “Will the House pass a bill to release Epstein files this year?,” the market surged from around 60 cents to nearly 90 cents, reflecting rising confidence that Congress would require the DOJ to release additional Epstein-related investigative records, including logs, communications, and internal documents.
Johnson’s Delay Backfires — and a Bipartisan Trio Drives Momentum
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had delayed Grijalva’s swearing-in for weeks, a move Democrats argued was designed to stall the discharge petition. Instead, the delay drew national attention. The story became not just about procedural strategy but about why the House was waiting to seat an elected member — especially as the petition sat at 217 signatures.
The petition itself was spearheaded by an unusual pair: Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA). Their cross-ideological partnership supplied the organizational backbone for gathering signatures, holding updates, and keeping pressure on leadership.
But the most politically striking development was the involvement of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), who openly defied Donald Trump’s position by partnering with Democrats to demand a vote. Greene consistently amplified calls to release the files, ensuring conservative media attention even as Trump labeled the transparency effort a “Democrat Epstein Hoax.” Her participation made clear that resistance to Trump’s stance extended inside his own base.
Once Grijalva was finally sworn in and the petition hit 218, the vote became procedurally unavoidable — and the markets responded accordingly.
Trump Digs In — Until a Late-Night Turnaround
For weeks before his reversal, Trump was the central obstacle to the bill. On Truth Social, he repeatedly argued that the House didn’t need to vote again, that Democrats were setting a trap, and that Republicans should avoid being “manipulated” into amplifying a “hoax.” His position clashed with the bipartisan coalition pushing for release, creating a rare situation in which prominent Trump-aligned figures — including Greene, Mace, and Boebert — were among the bill’s strongest advocates.
Then, late Sunday night, Trump abruptly changed course.
In a new Truth Social post, he wrote that Republicans “should vote to release the Epstein files,” adding that the party “has nothing to hide” and that “transparency is good for the country.” It was a sharp break from weeks of warnings and dismissals. For lawmakers who had heard him call the bill pointless, politically harmful, or a Democratic setup, the reversal was unexpected and dramatic.
The shift quickly reoriented Republican messaging. Members who had been reluctant to weigh in publicly now signaled support. And traders on Kalshi began pricing in not just passage — but a lopsided, cross-party vote.
A Market Swing Toward a Blowout
Trump’s reversal accelerated a repricing already underway. The focus moved from whether the bill would pass to how decisively it would pass:
The “350 or more” bracket climbed to roughly 90 cents, suggesting traders expect one of the widest bipartisan margins of the current Congress.
Individual yes-vote contracts for dozens of Republicans jumped above 80 cents, reflecting an assumption that most of the conference will fall in line.
One lingering uncertainty is Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). His individual yes-vote contract remains far lower — generally in the 80–90 cent range — signaling that traders remain unsure whether he will personally vote yes after weeks of echoing Trump’s earlier objections and delaying Grijalva’s seating.
What Kalshi Traders Are Signaling Now
With markets recalibrated following Trump’s shift, several themes stand out:
Passage is overwhelmingly expected. A price above 90% indicates broad agreement that procedural obstacles have disappeared and GOP resistance has collapsed.
A bipartisan blowout is the likely outcome. Pricing for 350+ votes implies an unusually wide coalition across the aisle.
Trump’s influence remains significant, but momentum pre-dated him. Traders were pricing high odds before his reversal; the flip accelerated, rather than initiated, the move toward near-certainty. It begs the question, “Was Trump monitoring the Kalshi odds?”
Johnson’s vote is the biggest open question. His contract remains the lowest among GOP leadership figures, reflecting skepticism about where he'll land.
With the shutdown resolved, the Arizona seat finally filled, and Trump now endorsing transparency, Kalshi traders are signaling that the real question is no longer whether the House will release additional Epstein files — but by how large a margin the vote will carry.
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