Spencer Pratt remains a heavy favorite to advance to the second round of the Los Angeles mayoral race, with Kalshi markets giving him a 78% chance of making it past Tuesday's primary. Mayor Karen Bass continues to lead the market at 91%.
Meanwhile, City Councilwoman Nithya Raman has seen her odds climb to 31% following a recent polling surge, but traders still consider her unlikely to overtake either Bass or Pratt.
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L.A. Mayoral Winner
However, traders are not as bullish on Pratt’s chances in the Los Angeles mayor election market. Bass leads at 62% to remain mayor, followed by Pratt at 27% and Raman at 12%.
What do the polls say?
The Los Angeles Times reported that the latest UC Berkeley-LA Times poll shows all three candidates polling closely with Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22% among likely voters.
Raman and Pratt “each surged by eight percentage points” since the March survey of likely voters while “Bass stayed flat.”
Trump’s endorsement
While Trump has spoken positively about Pratt, traders have become less confident that the president will formally endorse him.
The market for President Trump’s possible endorsements prices Pratt at 11%, down from a high of nearly 56%.
KABC reported that the president told reporters, “I’d like to see him do well. He’s a character. I heard he’s a big MAGA person.”
Pratt doesn’t seem as concerned about the endorsement. NBC News reported Pratt said on Thursday, “I don’t need anyone’s endorsement but mothers’. That’s who’s getting me elected.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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