A new UC Berkeley–Los Angeles Times poll has shifted the Los Angeles’ mayoral race just days before Tuesday’s primary, showing incumbent Karen Bass, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and former reality television star Spencer Pratt locked in a statistical dead heat.
The poll, released Thursday, found Bass leading with 26% support among likely voters, followed closely by Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%, according to the Los Angeles Times. Both Raman and Pratt gained eight points since March, while Bass remained flat.
Kalshi traders reacted quickly.
Markets tied to Raman surged following the release of the poll, while contracts tied to Bass and Pratt slipped in several key categories. But despite Raman’s momentum, traders still appear to believe Pratt is the stronger challenger to Bass, who remains the clear favorite overall.
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Who will advance?
The sharpest movement came in Kalshi’s market on who will advance to the Los Angeles mayoral runoff. Raman climbed 16 points to 34% after the poll was released, while Pratt fell 10 points to 71%. Bass remains heavily favored to advance at 91%.
November’s matchup?
A separate Kalshi market on hypothetical runoff matchups still strongly favors Pratt over Raman as Bass’ most competitive opponent.
The contract on a Bass vs. Pratt matchup is trading at 67%, compared with just 29% for a Bass vs. Raman contest. A Raman vs. Pratt runoff remains a longshot at 7%.
That divergence highlights what traders appear to believe is the race’s central question: whether Raman’s late polling surge can translate into enough turnout to break through what markets still see as a likely Bass-Pratt showdown.
The next mayor of L.A.?
Kalshi’s outright winner market also suggests traders remain cautious about declaring the race fully upended.
Bass is still the favorite to ultimately win City Hall at 59%, despite dropping 11 points following the poll release. Pratt sits at 23%, while Raman climbed sharply to 19%.
The market action suggests traders may still be pricing in Bass’ incumbency advantages, concerns about vote fragmentation among anti-Bass voters, or skepticism that Raman’s rapid rise can hold through election day.
Pratt, meanwhile, continues to outperform Raman across several markets despite his own declines after the poll.
The former “The Hills” personality has become one of the race’s most unusual political stories, transforming from a celebrity outsider candidate into what prediction market traders still view as Bass’ most viable challenger.
What the poll could mean
Still, the Berkeley poll has clearly altered the race’s trajectory.
The survey marked the first major public poll showing Raman effectively tied for first place, and Kalshi traders immediately repriced several contracts in response. Raman’s odds improved across nearly every major mayoral market within hours of the poll’s publication.
With only days remaining before the primary, traders now appear caught between two competing signals: a suddenly volatile polling environment and a market structure that still favors a Bass-Pratt runoff.
For now, Kalshi markets continue to show Bass as the candidate to beat, but Thursday’s poll suggests the race may be entering its most unpredictable stretch yet.
Sources: Los Angeles Times, May 28, 2026.
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