Spencer Pratt odds: The former reality star has a 1-in-3 chance of becoming L.A.'s next mayor

Spencer Pratt’s political ambitions have captured the attention of the national media and helped him raise significant campaign funds. But will it lead to victory in November?

Kalshi’s market for the Los Angeles mayoral race shows Pratt’s chances priced at 32%, giving him nearly a one-in-three shot at becoming L.A.’s next mayor.

However, traders are far more confident that Karen Bass will end up winning another term. She is currently the odds on favorite at 64%.

That said, Pratt’s odds of making it through the June 2 primary look far more promising. Traders price the chances of the former reality star facing off against Karen Bass in November at 79%.

Will the fact that Pratt is running on the Republican ticket help him pick up some high-profile GOP endorsements?

Traders currently price the chances of former U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene offering her endorsement to Pratt at 41%, followed by strategist Steve Bannon at 26% and pundit Tucker Carlson at 16%.

One of the most coveted endorsements Pratt will seek for his mayoral campaign is the one from President Donald Trump. But traders aren’t terribly confident he’ll get one.

The market for President Trump’s 2026 primary endorsements only shows a 36% chance that he’ll endorse Pratt for Los Angeles mayor. 

Despite the market skepticism, the Los Angeles Times reported that the president signaled he may back Pratt for mayor during a press conference at the Joint Base Andrews for the U.S. Coast Guard Academy Commencement.

“I’d like to see him do well. He’s a character,” President Trump said. “I heard he’s a big MAGA person. He’s doing well.”

Pratt gained some more political momentum thanks to high-profile donations.

Fox 11 Los Angeles reported that Pratt raised more than $538,000 in campaign contributions, compared to Bass, who brought in around $497,000.

Some of Pratt’s most notable donors include Los Angeles Lakers minority owner Jeanie Buss, Ring founder Jamie Siminoff, Tinder founder Sean Rad, and Universal Music CEO Lucian Grainge.

Bass’ biggest backers have come from organizations and groups like the Motion Picture Association, BizFed, the Los Angeles Chamber of Commerce, and the California Nurses Association.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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