Your friendly neighborhood Spider-Man is swinging back into theaters for another adventure, and traders are trying to predict how well the film will do with critics. Kalshi's current market forecast puts Brand New Day's Rotten Tomatoes score at 90.9%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with Sony or Spider-Man: Brand New Day.
What's it about?
The film picks up four years after the events of 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home. Peter Parker, played by Tom Holland, successfully erased the world’s memory of his identity. He's once again fighting crime full-time as Spider-Man, but the pressure of protecting a city where no one remembers his identity begins to take its toll.
Variety reported that some early footage released at CinemaCon back in April revealed that Mary Jane, played again by Zendaya, has moved on to a new love interest and Peter has to deal with the “realization that she’s moved on” to someone else.
The film also stars Mark Ruffalo as Bruce Banner/The Incredible Hulk, Jon Bernthal reprising his role as Frank Castle/The Punisher and Michael Mando as Mac Gargan/Scorpion.
What are the fans saying?
The second trailer, released June 17, sparked a fresh wave of internet speculation about the film and which characters fans can expect to see on the big screen.
The Guardian’s Ben Child did a thorough breakdown of some of the rumors started by fans who have been picking apart the trailers for every morsel of information they can provide.
One of the biggest pieces of information is the casting of Sadie Sink whose role is still unknown. Fans have speculated that she might be playing “the consciousness-swapping hooded villain from the trailers, a version of the X-Men’s Jean Grey” or “Parker’s daughter from another universe.”
Others have speculated that she could be Mayday Parker/Spider-Girl, Jean Grey’s daughter from the future Rachel Summers or Jean Grey’s clone Madelyne Pryor. The craziest theory speculates that she’s playing the evil Spider-Wasp Shathra.
The appearance of Bruce Banner also sparked some interesting theories. The trailer shows him transforming into the Hulk, meaning audiences can expect some kind of showdown between him and Spider-Man. Some fans think the version of the Hulk appearing in the film will be one not yet seen on the big screen.
“Some fans think this is the long-awaited return of Savage Hulk, because the trailer also shows a bigger, angrier, less house-trained version of Banner than we’ve seen in years,” Child wrote.
There are also widespread rumors circulating online that the film could introduce a live-action Miles Morales, but Child isn't too sure that will happen.
“Let’s ignore for a moment the fact that Sony would be letting Marvel play with one of the cleanest bits of Spider-Man IP it still has largely to itself, namely Miles as the star of its own Oscar-winning universe,” Child wrote. “It would also require yet another desperate dip into the multiverse, just when Marvel had seemed to be trying to drag Spider-Man back down to street level.”
The combination of Marvel's secrecy, anticipation following No Way Home, and widespread fan speculation may help explain why traders currently give Spider-Man: Brand New Day strong odds of earning one of the higher Rotten Tomatoes scores among recent superhero releases.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Spider-Man: Brand New Day RT forecast: 90.9%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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