Spider-Man: Brand New Day does not hit theaters until July 31, but Kalshi traders are already projecting it will land alongside the best-reviewed films of Tom Holland's Spider-Man run.
Kalshi's Rotten Tomatoes market currently forecasts a score of 92.4% for Brand New Day, placing it in the range of Holland's three previous outings, all of which earned Certified Fresh ratings.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with Sony or Spider-Man: Brand New Day.
What’s it about?
Brand New Day picks up four years after the events of Spider-Man: No Way Home, in which Doctor Strange's memory-wiping spell left Peter Parker living entirely alone in a New York City that no longer knows he exists.
Directed by Destin Daniel Cretton, who previously helmed Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, the film follows Peter as years of isolated crime fighting begin to trigger a physical evolution in his powers that he may not be able to control. At the same time, a powerful new threat is rising across the city, one that no one can even see.
Tom Holland returns as Peter Parker alongside Zendaya as MJ and Jacob Batalon as Ned Leeds. Jon Bernthal reprises Frank Castle for his first on-screen team-up with Spider-Man, while Mark Ruffalo appears as Bruce Banner. Michael Mando returns as Mac Gargan, the Scorpion, paying off a thread left open since Spider-Man: Homecoming in 2017. Sadie Sink and Tramell Tillman round out the main cast in undisclosed roles.
The buzz heading into opening weekend
The social media embargo lifts tonight, July 27. Full written reviews follow tomorrow morning, July 28, at 9 a.m. ET.
Pre-embargo signals have been consistently positive. Producer Amy Pascal has said publicly that an early director's cut moved her and Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige to a standing ovation, a reaction she described as a first for her on any Spider-Man project. The film's first trailer logged more than 1.1 billion views within four days of its release, a record debut according to Sony.
Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes contributor Erik Davis, ahead of the first reactions going live, said he had been hearing "very good things." Early screening descriptions have been overwhelmingly positive, with some viewers calling Brand New Day the strongest live-action Spider-Man film to date.
That sustained pre-release enthusiasm has pushed Kalshi's forecast to 92.4%, with traders giving the film a 76% chance of scoring above 90 and a 54% chance of cracking 92.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Spider-Man: Brand New Day Rotten Tomatoes score: 92.4%
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Sony Pictures / Marvel Studios
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