Episode 11 of Survivor 50 airs tonight, and the market has flipped completely in the final hours before Tribal Council airs.

Ozzy Lusth has surged to 94%, up 73 percentage points, as traders rapidly shifted away from Cirie Fields, who has collapsed from the top of the market to just 6%. Rick Devens sits at 7%.

Why the sudden shift?

Two pieces of news broke today that may have rattled the market.

E! News reported that singer Billie Eilish revealed on Amy Poehler's Good Hang podcast how she became one of the celebrity cameos in Season 50. Eilish presented a special "Boomerang Idol," a twist that forces a player to give an idol to someone else, granting that person immunity. If the recipient is then voted out, the immunity boomerangs back, sending the votes to the original holder.

Entertainment Weekly's Dalton Ross also reported that the official CBS episode description teases a "shocking incident" at this week's immunity challenge.

Inside Survivor's Stephanie Lauw wrote that Emily Flippen may be trying to convince another player to give up an immunity idol, though Lauw added, "I doubt Ozzy trusts Emily enough for her to suggest this."

What will Jeff Probst say?

Kalshi's host-dialogue market tracks specific words and phrases Jeff Probst is likely to say during the episode. The market prices "Drop/Dropped" at 65%, "Record/Longest" at 62%, and "Fire" at 36%.

Season 50 winner…

Despite the dram in this week’s elimination market, Kalshi’s overall winner market has not moved much. Traders price Aubry Bracco winning Survivor 50 at 82%, followed by Joe Hunter at 5%, and Cirie Fields at 9%.

The takeaway:

Kalshi markets now predict:

  • Ozzy being eliminated in Episode 11: 94%

  • Rick Devens being eliminated in Episode 11: 7%

  • Cirie being eliminated in Episode 11: 6%

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