Democratic state Rep. James Talarico maintains his lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Kalshi's U.S. Senate market.
The market for the Texas Senate race shows Talarico leading at 58% over Paxton at 42%.
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A separate Kalshi margin-of-victory market forecasts the Democratic candidate to win by 0.2 percentage points.
What do the polls say?
Recent polls have generally shown a close race between Talarico and Paxton, with several surveys giving Talarico a narrow lead.
KXAN reported that an August Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll showed Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%.
A Telemundo/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey also found Talarico leading Paxton by three percentage points.
A Texas A&M/ReconMR poll conducted in late July showed Talarico leading 47%-43%.
USA Today reported that a new Marist poll released Wednesday shows Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 44% among registered voters statewide. The survey of 1,139 registered voters has a margin of error of ±4.4 percentage points.
Will there be a debate?
Talarico and Paxton have yet to meet for a general-election debate.
WFAA reported that it had been communicating with Paxton's campaign about a televised debate since July but had not received a response since Aug. 24. Talarico has agreed to participate in three debates, including proposed events in South Texas, Dallas and Austin.
Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo told WFAA that controversies involving Paxton would likely come up during a debate. Appearing in a debate would have given Paxton a chance to address and explain those scandals and shift the negative spotlight on his opponent, but it appears “that the damage has been done.”
“I believe people know and have processed the Paxton negatives and factored it into their calculus,” Minchillo said. “That should give Paxton the opportunity to use a debate as a one-stop shop for Paxton to deliver a truckload of hits on Talarico. Hits that may be new news to a lot of voters.”
Texas Governor’s race
Texas Governor Greg Abbott still had a sizable lead over Texas Rep. Gina Hinojosa on Kalshi’s Texas Governor market, but the margin is starting to narrow.
Abbott currently sits at 75% and Hinojosa at 26%. Abbott has fallen 5 percentage points over the last five days, while Hinojosa has gained 5 percentage points.
The movement comes as a new Marist poll shows a much closer race between the two candidates. Hinojosa leads Abbott 49%-46% among registered voters, while she also leads among independents with 52%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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