State Rep. James Talarico's lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton continues to widen on Kalshi as Paxton faces new questions about his campaign strategy.
Talarico has widened his lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Kalshi's Texas Senate market, hitting a new high of 66%, up from 62% the prior week.
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Leaked Paxton audio
Another piece of recorded audio from Paxton’s Senate campaign leaked to Politico. In the recording, Paxton expressed frustration about how little control he felt he had over his campaign's messaging.
Paxton spoke at a small fundraising luncheon at the Washington lobbying firm Williams & Jensen, where he expressed frustration about his lack of control over the campaign's messaging.
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming – you know – from D.C.,” Paxton said in the recording. “I don’t control message or what we’re doing.”
Politico reported that the recording came from an attendee who does not support Paxton and that another attendee verified its authenticity.
An anonymous attendee said Paxton never mentioned President Donald Trump by name but “everybody knew what he was talking about.”
“I don’t have ability to change anything,” Paxton said. “So I have to live with whatever I’ve got. So it is a challenge.”
Paxton’s campaign adviser Nick Maddux said Paxton was referring to super PACs, which campaigns are prohibited from coordinating with.
Angela Paxton's ad
A new Republican campaign ad featuring Paxton's estranged wife has also attracted attention.
Mediaite reported that State Sen. Angela Paxton appeared in an ad urging Texans to vote for the Republican ticket without mentioning her estranged husband by name.
“In a general election, it’s not as much about the individual players on the team,” Angela Paxton said. “It’s about getting the whole team across the finish line. Either we hold every Republican seat, or we hand the future of Texas to the other team. That’s why I’m voting for the Republican ticket on Nov. 3. Let’s hold the line together.”
Andrew Kaczynski, CNN senior politics reporter, questioned on X why the ad would draw attention to the Paxtons' contentious divorce in which Angela accused him in court of committing adultery.
“What’s the ‘elephant in the room’ mentioned here,” Kaczynski wrote. “Google Ken Paxton, Angela Paxton to find out – this is legitimately such a strange ad, inviting people who have no knowledge of this to just see what’s going on.”
Balance of power
The Texas race could also play an important role in determining control of the Senate.
The congressional balance of power market shows Democrats sweeping the House and Senate at 65%, a Democratic House and a Republican Senate at 29%, and a Republican sweep at 8.4%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: JamesTalarico.com
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