Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton's price on Kalshi's Texas Senate market has fallen following the release of audio in which he suggested the Republican midterm convention in Dallas hurt GOP candidates' polling numbers.
The Texas Senate winner market shows Paxton’s price dropped from 41% to 38% on Sept. 30. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads the market at 62%.
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‘It dropped our numbers’
Paxton has trailed Talarico in several polls as well as on Kalshi's Texas Senate market. The latest market decline comes as newly obtained audio provides Paxton's own assessment of the political impact of the Dallas convention.
The New York Times’ Theodore Schleifer reported that it obtained a recording of Paxton discussing the midterm convention in Dallas with an unidentified person. In the recording, Paxton said the convention “dropped our numbers” and added that “everybody's numbers dropped.”
The Times reported that the recording captured Paxton speaking at a private fundraiser in Washington, where an unidentified speaker asked the Texas attorney general, “Do you feel like he’s a little bit of a drag?” The Times reported that it could not identify whom the speakers were referring to.
“Mr. Paxton responds: ‘So to be honest with you, the numbers, when we did that convention, it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good,’” Schleifer reported.
Paxton senior adviser Nick Maddux dismissed the recorded remarks as “more manipulated nonsense from The New York Times to create a story that doesn’t exist.”
Paxton was one of the key figures featured in the Dallas midterm convention.
“He occupied a prime seat inside the arena and used the Dallas gathering to mingle with Republican donors and raise money from his allied groups,” Schleifer reported. “Onstage, Mr. Trump both praised Mr. Paxton and teased him for his looks and sartorial choices.”
James Talarico’s campaign
Talarico has led Paxton in several public polls and has also drawn substantial support from Black voters.
The New York Times’ J. David Goodman reported that some Black voters who had supported Crockett in the primary were now supporting Talarico in the general election.
A June poll from The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project shows Talarico with 67% support among Black voters, compared with 13% for Paxton.
“Most were far more turned off by his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general,” Goodman wrote. “Some praised Mr. Talarico’s efforts to spend time in Black communities across Texas, speaking at churches and appearing on podcasts and radio shows with large Black audiences, like The Breakfast Club.”
Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
The movement in Texas comes as Democrats also lead Kalshi's national Senate control market.
The market prices Democratic control of the Senate at 63% and Republican control at 38%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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