State Rep. James Talarico's price on Kalshi's Texas Senate market dropped five percentage points to 61% after he spent nearly a week away from in-person campaigning while recovering from the flu.
However, he has since regained ground in the Texas Senate winner market, which now shows Talarico's chances at 64% while Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is at 37%.
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Talarico's absence
Talarico returned to the campaign trail Friday after a nine-day absence while recovering from the flu. During his absence, unsubstantiated claims about his whereabouts circulated on social media.
The Cincinnati Enquirer reported that rumors started to surface in conservative social media circles that Talarico had checked into a mental health facility in Ohio. The assertion that Talarico was receiving mental health treatment was fueled further by posts from President Donald Trump, Elon Musk and Paxton "who questioned Talarico's whereabouts."
Conservative influencer Nick Sortor alleged Talarico was being treated at the Lindner Center of Hope in Cincinnati, a post that Musk shared with his followers on X with the comment, “The Talarico campaign is not being honest about what’s happening.”
The Lindner Center responded with its own X post that Talarico was never a patient at its facility.
The Texas Tribune reported that Talarico made a surprise appearance at the Austin City Limits music festival in Austin on Friday.
"Hate to disappoint the conspiracy theorists, but James is still alive and meeting with voters at ACL today," Talarico's spokesperson J.T. Ennis posted on X on Friday.
Talarico also spoke to MS NOW's Rosa Flores about his absence, and he used the moment to zing Paxton.
“He has asked for proof of life,” Talarico said. “I’m asking for proof of spine from him.”
A Texas Senate debate?
With the Nov. 3 election approaching, the two Texas Senate candidates have yet to meet for a face-to-face debate.
The Texas Tribune also reported that "Paxton has yet to accept any debate invitations despite his campaign saying he was eager to confront Talarico."
Talarico said in September during the Texas Tribune Festival that he’s eager to schedule a debate with his opponent.
“Texans deserve to make an informed choice in this really critically race, so I’m challenging Ken Paxton to a game on his own turf,” Talarico said, referring to his offer to schedule a televised debate on the Fox News Channel.
Mediaite reported that Paxton appeared on Fox News' The Big Weekend Show and blamed the Talarico campaign for delaying any debate between the candidates.
“Well, now look, we’ve been looking on that for months with him and, of course, and we can never quite work out the details because he always wants something we can’t do,” Paxton said.
Ennis posted on X that Paxton is "lying" about scheduling a debate.
“He has ignored every single attempt our campaign has made to debate, including a personal call to his cellphone offering a Fox News debate,” Ennis wrote.
Talarico also posted on X in response to the interview clip, "Here are the details: literally any time, any place, any network."
Which party will win?
Kalshi's national Senate control market also shifted slightly toward Republicans over the same period.
The Democratic Party's price fell from 63.7% to 62%, while the Republican Party's rose from 36.3% to 38%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: JamesTalarico.com
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