Talarico's Texas Senate odds hit 64% as early voting continues

State Rep. James Talarico maintains his lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Kalshi as both candidates intensify their campaigns ahead of Election Day.

Kalshi’s Texas Senate winner market price shows Talarico at 64%, compared with 36% for Paxton.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

Both candidates began the final stretch of their campaigns in Tarrant County, a politically competitive region that has become an important battleground in Texas elections.

The New York Times reported that Paxton and Talarico kicked off the final leg of their campaigns in Fort Worth, located in Tarrant County. Their appearances underscore Tarrant County’s importance to both parties as they compete for voters in the Fort Worth area. It’s become a battleground for Republicans and Democrats in local and state elections.

“Fort Worth and its surrounding suburbs have become a crucial political battleground,” The Times wrote. “For Republicans in Texas, the contest – for Tarrant County, and therefore Texas, and, Republicans would argue, the future of conservative America – has increasingly been framed as existential.”

Tarrant County has traditionally favored Republicans, but recent elections have shown growing Democratic competitiveness in the area. Democrat Taylor Rehmet surprised political pundits by winning a special election for a State Senate seat in the region earlier this year.

The Republican Party hasn’t lost sight of its need for Tarrant County to stay red. It’s the last major urban area in Texas that hasn’t gone completely blue. Some national figures, like Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., were spotted at a Paxton rally in Fort Worth, even though he didn’t offer an official endorsement for Paxton’s candidacy.

President Donald Trump has also weighed in on the increasingly competitive Senate contest.

The New Republic noted that President Trump has posted several rants on his Truth Social page about Talarico, “calling him juvenile names and raging at Republicans who, in Trump’s mind, are to blame for the strength of Talarico’s campaign.

“It sure looks like Trump is panicking about Texas, yet the polls are sending a mixed picture,” The New Republic reported. “Talarico is still up, but the race seems to be tightening. And a huge amount of Republican money is still set to pour into this race.”

The Hill reported that Republicans are already trying to come up with excuses for Paxton’s struggling campaign as he “faces a stream of negative headlines and Democrats grow increasingly confident about flipping the state.”

In one of his recent posts, President Trump pointed the blame at incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and GOP strategist Karl Rove, “accusing them of working to undermine Paxton.”

Kalshi’s Texas governor market also showed a narrower gap between Republican Gov. Greg Abbott and Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.

Abbott's market price fell to 71%, compared with 29% for Hinojosa.

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Win McNamee

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}