Texas Senate odds: Talarico leads Paxton 63% to 37% as early voting begins

State Rep. James Talarico maintains his lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in Kalshi's Texas Senate election market.

Kalshi's Texas Senate winner market prices Talarico at 63%, compared with 37% for Paxton.

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Two recent polls show a tight race between Talarico and Paxton for the Texas Senate seat.

A new CBS News/YouGov poll found that 51% of likely voters support Talarico, and 49% support Paxton. The poll carries a margin of error of 3.5 points.

USA Today reported that a new University of Houston poll showed a similar result. The poll, conducted by the UH Hobby School of Public Affairs, found that 48% of respondents support Talarico, while 46% support Paxton.

Both candidates have won endorsements from prominent organizations and public figures.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorsed Paxton, calling him “a defender of free enterprise and the pro-growth policies that empower American businesses to thrive.”

Meanwhile, The Dallas Morning News editorial board endorsed Talarico after backing outgoing Republican Sen. John Cornyn.

“There are many issues where Talarico is further to the left than we would like,” the DMN’s editorial board wrote. “Yet he has demonstrated not only an impressive depth of knowledge but also a willingness to cut against party orthodoxy in the name of bipartisan progress.”

With early voting underway in Texas, both campaigns are intensifying their efforts to reach voters before Election Day.

Talarico started a 21-city tour on Sunday in Plano, a Dallas suburb, a day before early voting began in Texas, according to a report from The New York Times. The tour will continue across Texas through Election Day. Talarico’s campaign calls it the “Clear Eyes, Full Hearts Tour,” a reference to the TV series Friday Night Lights.

Paxton has also stepped up his campaign activity. Outside political groups supporting him have received substantial financial backing from Elon Musk. A previous Kalshi story reported that Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund last month. The super PAC gave that same amount to Texas PAC, an outside group that supports Paxton’s campaign.

“The donations from Mr. Musk, collectively some of the biggest ever recorded in American politics, have allowed Mr. Paxton to remain financially competitive even as he is vastly outraised by his Democrat opponent,” The New York Times reported.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott holds a strong lead over State Rep. Gina Hinojosa in Kalshi’s Texas governor’s race market, with Abbott at 74% and Hinojosa at 26%.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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