State Rep. James Talarico has extended his lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Kalshi's Texas Senate winner market.
Talarico's chances are now priced at 67%, up from 66% earlier this week, while Paxton sits at 33%.
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What do the polls say?
The latest New York Times/Siena College poll shows Talarico also holds the lead over Paxton in the race for Texas' Senate seat.
The poll shows Talarico leading by 6 points at 51% to 45%. An earlier Times/Siena poll in June had the race tied.
More leaked Paxton audio
Another piece of audio of Paxton talking about his floundering campaign for U.S. Senate has leaked.
Axios obtained audio of Paxton speaking at a closed-door fundraiser with donors and lobbyists in Washington, D.C. The recording was provided by an attendee whom Axios described as being opposed to Paxton.
An attendee asked Paxton about the issues that are “dragging” on his campaign. Paxton said, “It’s not tariffs. … It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel.”
“When it’s over $6 per gallon for diesel … people are feeling the pinch,” Paxton said in the recording.
He went on to say the price of fuel also “drives up food prices and everything else,” and described affordability as “by far our biggest problem” and the reason his campaign is “having a hard time with numbers.”
Paxton also pointed to proposed tax cuts, including housing and health care write-offs and an expansion of the child tax credit, as policies he could pursue to address affordability concerns, and lamented the fact that he could not control the war in Iran, which he linked to higher gasoline and diesel prices.
“So many factors in this federal race are uncontrollable,” Paxton said. “I don’t make the decisions, and I don’t … know what’s behind some of the decisions.”
This is just the latest piece of audio to leak of Paxton speaking at a private donor event. Earlier this week, Politico obtained audio from a separate event in which Paxton expressed frustration about his U.S. Senate campaign. Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff earlier this year.
“I’ve never been in a race where I felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming – you know – from D.C.,” Paxton said in the recording. “I don’t control message or what we’re doing.”
Paxton repeatedly expressed frustration about factors he said were outside his control.
“I don’t have ability to change anything,” Paxton said. “So I have to live with whatever I’ve got. So it is a challenge.”
Senate control
The Texas race is also drawing national attention as both parties compete for control of the U.S. Senate.
Kalshi's Senate control market currently prices Democratic control at 64% and Republican control at 36%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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