The battle for who will be the Republican nominee in November’s Texas Senate election is still unfolding, and the contest remains competitive, at least in part, because President Donald Trump has yet to endorse a candidate.
Traders now price Paxton’s chances of winning the runoff at 61%, while Cornyn’s chances are at 39%.
That internal division is giving Democratic candidate James Talarico an opening. The market for the Texas Senate race prices the Republican Party winning at 56%, with Talarico at 44%.
Scenario markets also favor Paxton in the general election matchup, but Talarico remains within striking distance of either Republican. Traders price Paxton defeating Talarico at 42%, Talarico defeating Paxton at 37%, and Cornyn defeating Talarico at 20%.
Senate race polls
The latest polls on the Republican runoff align with market forecasts. The Texas Tribune reported that Paxton leads Cornyn in the latest statewide survey, conducted by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs.
The picture shifts in the general election. Two polls conducted in April by Texas Public Opinion Research and the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin found Talarico leading both Paxton and Cornyn in head-to-head matchups.
No endorsement from Trump
One reason the race between Cornyn and Paxton remains so close is that President Donald Trump has yet to endorse either candidate. CNN reported that Trump promised to give his endorsement two months ago, but "That endorsement still has not arrived – and its absence is keeping the race highly competitive."
Both sides are still trying to court the president. Cornyn's TV ads highlight how often the senator votes in agreement with President Trump's agenda. Paxton also met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago in March, and one of his PACs paid for TV ads in Palm Beach in an effort to draw the president's attention.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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