The Open Championship final round odds and predictions: Traders give Burns a 41% shot at the Claret Jug

Sam Burns enters the final round of the 154th Open Championship at Royal Birkdale as the clear market favorite, with Kalshi traders giving him a 41% chance of lifting the Claret Jug on Sunday. Burns and Lucas Herbert share the 54-hole lead at nine-under, with Ryan Fox one back at eight-under, each of the three having carded a 62 at some point this week.

No major has ever seen three players card a 62 in the same week.

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Burns arrived at Royal Birkdale having finished runner-up at the U.S. Open earlier this summer, and his form this week has backed up that momentum. A third-round 65 on Saturday, including a 30-foot birdie conversion on the 14th, left him level at the top with Herbert and Fox. Si Woo Kim sits two back at eight-under after a birdie on the 10th moved him briefly into a share of the lead during Saturday's back nine. Ryan Gerard and Jackson Suber are tied at seven-under, with Tommy Fleetwood a further shot behind at six-under.

The leaderboard is unusually compressed for a major heading into Sunday. Fleetwood, the Southport native playing in front of a partisan home crowd, is well within range, as is Bryson DeChambeau at five-under despite the two-stroke penalty assessed after his second round for inadvertently improving his lie.

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler sits at four-under and tied for eleventh, needing a near-flawless final round to contend. Rory McIlroy, who drew widespread coverage for a brilliant eagle chip at the ninth in round three, is six back at two-under.

Burns has made a career of contending at the biggest events without yet converting. His runner-up at Shinnecock Hills in June was the most visible near-miss, but the pattern stretches back further: multiple PGA Tour wins, several top-10s in majors, and a reputation as one of the steadiest ball-strikers on tour without a major to show for it. A win here would end that narrative decisively, in the oldest and most storied of settings.

Kalshi's round four score market places Burns at a 50% chance of carding under 69.5 strokes on Sunday. Ludvig Aberg sits at 57% on the same measure, while Keegan Bradley leads the field at 61% to come in under 69.5 strokes.

Lucas Herbert made history on Friday with a round of 62 that tied the lowest score ever posted at a men's major. Burns matched it the same afternoon. Ryan Fox then walked out Saturday morning and did it again, nine birdies fueling a rapid rise from well outside the top 10 to within one shot of the lead by the time he signed his card.

Of those three, Herbert has been the steadiest presence of the week, leading wire-to-wire through the first two days. Fox's Saturday surge was the most electric single round of the tournament. The market, however, places Herbert at just 4% and Fox at 11% to win outright, a reflection of the broader field's depth rather than a verdict on either player's form.

No storyline at Royal Birkdale carries more emotional weight than Tommy Fleetwood's. The 35-year-old grew up in Southport, within sight of these fairways, and has been greeted with roaring galleries throughout the week.

Traders give Fleetwood just a 3% chance of winning the Claret Jug on Sunday, a number that reflects his four-shot deficit. Four shots is achievable at Birkdale this week given the scoring conditions, but it would require others to stumble while Fleetwood produces the round of his life on the biggest possible stage.

Kalshi's outright market is more concentrated at the top than at any point in the week. Burns leads at 41%, with Si Woo Kim at 16% and Fox at 11%. Ryan Gerard and DeChambeau sit at 6% each, with Aberg at 5%. Scheffler's implied probability has fallen to 3%, a far cry from the 20% he held at the start of the week.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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