The Open Championship odds: Scheffler favored as round 1 unfolds at Royal Birkdale

The 154th Open Championship is underway at Royal Birkdale, and Scottie Scheffler arrives as the defending champion and the outright tournament favorite. But the round 1 leader market tells a different story: Kalshi traders have Alex Smalley out front at 21%, with Ryan Gerard close behind at 18% and Scheffler at 7%. On the outright market, Scheffler still leads at 20% to lift the Claret Jug on Sunday, more than twice his nearest rival.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with The Open Championship or The R&A.}

Scheffler claimed his first Claret Jug last July at Royal Portrush, closing out a dominant performance on 17-under to win by four strokes over Harris English. In the year since, his form has been uneven by his own extraordinary standards, going without a win despite several high finishes. He arrives at Royal Birkdale having missed the cut at last week's Scottish Open, but traders are not wavering. A win here would make Scheffler the first back-to-back Open champion since Padraig Harrington in 2008.

Scheffler teed off in the morning wave alongside Tyrrell Hatton and Bryson DeChambeau. The world number one briefly moved to the outright lead after holing a 43-foot putt at the sixth, drawing praise from the commentary box as a sign he had returned straight back off the canvas after his Scottish Open struggles. Kalshi's scores market gives him a 93% chance of carding a round under 67.5 strokes, the most aggressive line on any player in the field.

While Scheffler attracted the marquee attention, two lesser-fancied names set the early clubhouse standard. Belgium's Thomas Detry posted three-under through his round, and Alex Smalley birdied four of his opening five holes to match him at the top. Both sit at -3, with a large cluster one shot behind including Robert MacIntyre, Andy Sullivan, Dan Brown, and Viktor Hovland.

Hatton, given just a 3% chance of leading after round 1 by Kalshi traders, made a birdie at the first to put early pressure on his playing partners. DeChambeau also started sharply, converting back-to-back birdies to take advantage of the driveable par-four second. Before the tournament, as Mirror US reported, DeChambeau said anything other than a win this week would leave him disappointed.

The afternoon wave features the tournament's biggest remaining draw: Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Xander Schauffele, all scheduled together at 3:15 p.m. local time. Kalshi gives McIlroy a 3% chance of holding the round 1 lead, with his scores market line placing him at 51% to come in under 68.5 strokes.

No storyline at Royal Birkdale this week carries more local weight than Tommy Fleetwood's. Fleetwood grew up in Southport, where as a child he regarded Birkdale as hallowed turf, sneaking onto the course during his father's evening dog walks. Now 35 and fresh off his first PGA Tour victory at last year's Tour Championship, he returns as one of the tournament favorites and the unmistakable crowd favorite. An Englishman has not been crowned Champion Golfer of the Year since Nick Faldo at Muirfield in 1992.

Fleetwood said ahead of the tournament, per Sky Sports, that playing at Birkdale "is an absolute dream." Traders give him a 3% chance of leading after round 1. He received a thunderous reception from the gallery at the first tee and made an early birdie to get under par, though the market's tight line on him reflects the broader expectation that Royal Birkdale will test even the most in-form players.

Beyond round 1, Kalshi's outright market paints a clear picture of where traders see the Claret Jug heading. Scheffler leads at 20%, with McIlroy at 8% and DeChambeau rising to 6%. Matt Fitzpatrick and Jon Rahm sit at 5% each, with Robert MacIntyre at 4% and Ryan Gerard — buoyed by his strong early scoring — climbing to 4% as well. The field behind the top names is fragmented, with no single contender commanding meaningful market share.

Kalshi markets now predict:

Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Bryan Berlin

^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with The Open Championship or The R&A.}