The week ahead: Primaries, power vacuums, and Kalshi Pro

Good morning traders,

Sadly, on Saturday, longtime Senator Lindsey Graham died at the age of 71 while in the middle of a reelection campaign. Now, with only a few months to go until early voting begins, his sudden passing has thrown the world of politics into chaos, especially in his home state of South Carolina. But the elections must go on, and Kalshi’s markets are already signaling what might be in store.

We’ll also be talking about the Maine Senate race, which has recently seen some chaos of its own. Every time you check what’s happening, you don’t know whether you’re reading actual news or a satirical parody. But Kalshi traders are already pricing in what comes next.

And if politics aren't your thing, we'll also talk a bit about earnings season that kicks off a bit later this week, and related Kalshi markets.

So with all that said, let’s dive into the stories.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.}

Due to Lindsey Graham's passing, the Senate seat that belonged to him is now empty and will be filled with whoever South Carolina's Republican Governor Henry McMaster appoints to act as interim replacement. And earlier today, Graham's sister shot up to the top of the list after an endorsement from President Trump.

But regardless of who the temporary appointment is, there is much larger discussion happening about the Senate election in November. Graham won 57% of South Carolina's GOP Primary votes earlier this year and was set to face off against Democratic candidate Annie Andrews. Since the party is now without a nominee, a special expedited primary will take place to find who will run in the November election. 

What’s interesting is that whoever McMaster appoints could very well be the same person that is chosen in the special primary meaning someone never elected as Senator would be running for re-election in a position they were never initially elected to.

Needless to say, things in politics can change very quickly and there’s still a ton of uncertainty in what will end up happening. Fortunately, if you think you know what will happen, there are markets open for you.

In case you've been wondering what's happening in the northeasternmost part of the country, Maine's Senate Race has taken yet another turn. On Friday, Graham Platner formally withdrew from Maine's U.S. senate race to end the campaign marked by controversy.

The Maine Democratic Party announced that there would be a convention held in two weeks to choose Platner's replacement for the election taking place in November. Potential candidates have until this Wednesday to declare their candidacy before being elected by delegates who are elected at a county level.

Now, if you’re wondering why a seemingly random senate election happening in a state with half of the population of Brooklyn is getting so much news coverage, just like anything in politics, it’s complicated. 

First, anything involving controversy and politics gets spun to be as emotional as possible to get your attention. So regardless of whether you’re in the age group that consumes content on TikTok, Twitter, or television, you can’t stop watching.

Second, this race ruffled quite a few feathers in the Democratic Party. Due to his views and the controversy marking his campaign, many establishment Dems were skeptical about endorsing Platner, and some of those that did eventually recalled their endorsements and actually called on him to drop out. While flip-flopping on someone you wanted to represent your party at the national level might be the right decision, either because you are trying to make sure you don't get roped into their controversy or because you genuinely care about the personal integrity of who gets elected, it's still not a good look for the party.

While it's uncertain who will be the candidate the Democrats elect, it will be interesting if the Maine Democratic Party chooses someone more in line with establishment Democratic views, or opts for an individual with views similar to that of Platner, who obviously resonated with voters enough to win him the primary.

We hope you've had enough about politics, because we're shifting gears to something that, unless you're an options trader, should make you a little less on edge than upcoming elections: earnings.

Earnings season is kicking off later this week with a large portion of the bulge bracket banks including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup on Tuesday and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. In addition to the Patagonia vest wearers, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, and United Airlines are also due to let investors know how things are going.

While the market has been relatively quiet and stable over the past few weeks, this upcoming week is important not just for the 14 companies we mention and KPI markets on, but also for the broader economy. As we joked about earlier, the finance bros are going to let the world know how they've been doing this past quarter. Importantly, giving out information on lending losses, credit, and how their investment banks have been doing provides an insight into the health of the broader economy.

So if you're trading on politics, the state of the economy, or something completely different, there's tons of markets available for you to trade on Kalshi. We hope this week is a good one.

Kalshi has launched Kalshi Pro, a desktop trading workstation built for active traders managing dozens of markets at once. It runs on the same account, balance, and exchange, but adds the kind of infrastructure serious traders expect. This includes a multi-market canvas with saved layouts, a real-time screener across roughly 2,000 markets, and a full perpetuals interface with licensed TradingView charting, leverage selection, and built-in risk management.

This is a meaningful step in Kalshi's evolution into a full-service financial exchange, and it's free to use, available now in beta at pro.kalshi.com.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}