Sinner vs. Zverev odds: today's Wimbledon final pits last year's winner against the reigning French Open champ

Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev meet in Sunday's Wimbledon final. Sinner is bidding to become the 10th man in the Open Era to successfully defend a Wimbledon title, while Zverev is looking to become the first man in the Open Era to win his first two Grand Slam titles at back-to-back majors, having claimed his maiden Slam last month at Roland Garros.

Traders on Kalshi heavily favor Sinner to retain his title, while a separate market shows real uncertainty about whether Zverev can avoid a straight-sets defeat.

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Sinner enters off the back of a dominant semifinal win over Novak Djokovic. His only real scare all tournament came in the first round, a five-set win over Miomir Kecmanovic in which he dropped two sets. He hasn't lost a set since.

Zverev, meanwhile, reached his first Wimbledon final by ending British wild card Arthur Fery's historic run in the other semifinal. Sinner has won nine straight matches against Zverev dating back to 2024, though the two have never before met on grass, a wrinkle both men have pointed to as a genuine unknown heading into Sunday.

Sinner has been nearly untouchable since the tournament's first week, delivering a serving masterclass against Djokovic in the semifinals, where he won 88% of his first-serve points and faced just a single break point across the entire match. His return game has been sharp enough to keep Zverev's own serve, one of the best in the sport, under real pressure heading into Sunday.

"It shows that he is playing incredible tennis," Sinner told ATP Tour of Zverev's recent form.

Zverev arrives with a different kind of confidence than in his previous eight meetings with Sinner. His maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros has visibly loosened him up, and he's shown a more aggressive, improved forehand throughout his run to the final. Still, the German has never beaten a world No. 1 at a major, and grass remains the one surface where he'd never previously gone past the fourth round before this year.

"I feel like I worked on my game a lot. I feel like my game has improved," Zverev told the tournament's official site ahead of the final.

Beyond the simple match-winner price, a separate Kalshi market breaks down the exact scoreline traders expect, and it leans heavily toward a routine Sinner win. A straight-sets sweep is the single most popular outcome by a wide margin, with a four-set Sinner win the next most likely result. Zverev pulling off the upset in any number of sets sits far behind both, reflecting just how lopsided this rivalry has been regardless of the change in surface.

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^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Opinions and market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with the ATP, WTA, or Wimbledon.}