In late September, favorable developments and tied polls renewed GOP hopes of winning the governor’s mansion in New Jersey and prompted a fresh wave of Democratic angst in this rapidly right-trending state.
At the time, their fears seemed well-founded, as Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli’s chances of winning the governorship doubled from 12% to 24% in early October. But in recent weeks, Ciattarelli’s momentum has stalled, and a new scandal surrounding remarks made by one of his top aides threatens to dog him on the campaign trail.
First, some background on the candidates in this race. The Democratic nominee is Mikie Sherrill, a congresswoman representing New Jersey’s 11th congressional district in the New York City suburbs. A former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor, Sherrill first won election in 2018 by flipping a Trump +1 district by 14 points. Earlier this year, she emerged from a crowded Democratic primary, defeating Newark mayor Ras Baraka and Jersey City mayor Steve Fulop.
The Republican nominee in this race is former New Jersey state representative Jack Ciattarelli, who was also the GOP nominee for governor in 2021. That year, Ciattarelli outperformed the polls and nearly unseated incumbent Governor Phil Murphy in an upset, but ultimately fell short by around 3 points. Now, Ciattarelli is back, and was swept to victory in the GOP primary with nearly 70% of the vote after securing President Trump’s endorsement.
As a state, New Jersey has long been seen as solidly blue, with almost every Democratic presidential nominee in the 21st century winning the state by double digits. But in 2024, heavy minority shifts toward Trump lurched the state right by 10.1%, and Harris only ended up winning New Jersey by around 6%. It was the second-most pro-Trump shift of any state in 2024, second only to New York (10.8%). It’s also important to note that New Jersey has been governed since 2017 by Democrat Phil Murphy, whose approvals are middling at best, creating the potential that voters prioritize a change of parties in the upcoming election.
Given this backdrop, the governor’s race has always had the potential to be competitive, although Democrats were hoping that the dynamics of being the party out of power and Trump’s unpopularity would ultimately help them carry both the New Jersey and Virginia’s gubernatorial elections.
For a while, traders appeared to agree in both Virginia and New Jersey, although notably, despite both states voting for Harris by very similar margins in 2024, traders never expected Sherrill’s margin of victory to exceed Spanberger’s margin in Virginia.
But then, the Sherrill campaign was hit with an avalanche of bad news in the last month. Footage resurfaced of an interview she did on The Breakfast Club show, where she struggled to answer how much money she had made from selling stocks during her time in Congress. That was followed by a lackluster debate where she faced questions regarding some of her statements criticizing Charlie Kirk following his assassination. Most recently, the headlines have been dominated by the fact that she did not walk with her classmates at the Naval Academy graduation as a result of a massive cheating scandal. Although Sherrill herself reportedly did not cheat, she was punished because she did not report her classmates who did.
In the wake of these stories, there were multiple polls released showing the New Jersey race essentially a tossup. While two were partisan polls, the nonpartisan poll (from Emerson College, a respected polling outlet) pegged the race as dead even at 43%. As a result, not only did Sherrill’s odds dip on whether she would win, but her expected margin of victory also dropped. Previously, traders thought she was likely to achieve a margin of victory of over 14%. After the revelations and polls, they believed that even if she did win, it would most likely be by under 6%.
It’s no wonder, then, that the GOP smelled blood in the water and signaled a renewed interest in this race; conservative influencers such as Benny Johnson and Scott Pressler have expressed that they would be traveling to New Jersey to support the Ciattarelli campaign. On the Democratic side, former President Barack Obama cut an ad for Sherrill and announced that he would campaign with her in Newark, on November 1, a sign that both parties see the race as highly competitive.
Over this last weekend, though, the Sherrill campaign finally got a break of sorts. Video emerged of Ibrar Nadeem, Ciattarelli’s executive director for Muslim relations, decrying same-sex marriage and expressing support for a ban. He also mentioned that he was not “taking money from Jews,” a phrase that the Sherrill campaign was quick to accuse of antisemitic tropes. Time will tell if any of this has a tangible impact on the race, but the initial market reaction was not favorable; Ciattarelli’s odds dipped to 18%, as Sherrill’s ticked above 80% again.
With around two weeks to go until Election Day, and with over 300,000 ballots cast in early voting already, both campaigns will vie to claim the momentum during the home stretch of the race. Ultimately, voters will decide if Sherrill can win a third Democratic governorship in a row in a purpling state, or if Ciattarelli can pull off a momentous upset that would energize the GOP going into a critical midterm year.
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