Traders unmoved by ‘tight race’ narrative in New Jersey

For all the talk of a late-breaking nail-biter in New Jersey, Kalshi traders aren’t buying it, at least not yet.

Contracts tied to the New Jersey governor’s race show Rep. Mikie Sherrill holding a commanding 82% chance of victory on Election Day, compared with just 20% for Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican challenger mounting his third bid for the office. The market’s pricing has hardly budged this week, even as headlines warn of tightening polls and a potential Election Night surprise.

Both ABC News and MSNBC describe the contest as unusually close for a deep-blue state, citing surveys that show Sherrill’s lead shrinking to single digits. A Quinnipiac poll last week found her up 51% to 43%, while a Suffolk University survey showed a four-point margin, 46% to 42%.

The Republican National Committee has redeployed staff and volunteers to boost turnout, while Democrats have poured millions into the Garden State, including a $500,000 DNC cash infusion just days before the vote. Yet, despite the renewed Republican push, traders on Kalshi appear skeptical that the polling narrative will translate into a meaningful shift at the ballot box.

The broader narrative of the race has centered on whether Sherrill can sustain her advantage in a year when Republicans have looked to capitalize on voter frustration over affordability and the lingering effects of a month-long government shutdown.

Ciattarelli, who nearly unseated Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021, has pitched himself as a pragmatic alternative but remains tethered to Donald Trump, who endorsed him and spoke at Election Eve tele-rallies in New Jersey and Virginia.

Sherrill, for her part, has leaned into that contrast, campaigning with Barack Obama over the weekend and labeling her opponent the “Trump of Trenton.” She has also focused her closing message on kitchen-table issues, vowing to declare a state of emergency on utility costs if elected, a nod to voters facing some of the nation’s highest property taxes and energy bills.

The market on Sherrill’s expected margin of victory shows the most likely outcome is a razor-thin win between 0 and 1.99 percentage points (19%), followed closely by slightly wider Democratic margins in the 2–4% range.

The probability of Sherrill losing outright remains only 18%, suggesting that while traders acknowledge a close race, they see defeat as unlikely. In essence, participants are betting on a photo finish, but not an upset.

A third Kalshi market adds nuance to that outlook. Contracts asking whether Sherrill will outperform her RealClearPolitics polling average trade at 53%, up eight points on the day.

The near-even odds indicate traders are split on whether the Democrat will beat or underperform expectations — essentially a coin flip — but the slight edge implies confidence in her late-stage momentum and the strength of early Democratic voting.

Kalshi traders seem to believe Sherrill’s message is resonating. With millions of dollars in trading volume across the state’s key markets, participants continue to assign her solid odds of victory — not invincible, but steady.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

While pundits and pollsters debate whether the Garden State could deliver an upset, Kalshi’s traders are signaling something else entirely — confidence in a narrow but durable Democratic win.

Sources: Kalshi, ABC News (Nov. 4, 2025), MSNBC (Nov. 4, 2025).
Image Source: Joeshmonobody

This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions.