President Donald Trump is launching a counteroffensive over newly released Jeffrey Epstein emails, publicly urging the Justice Department to investigate Bill Clinton and other prominent Democrats. But even as Trump attempts to redirect scrutiny, prediction markets currently show little belief that Clinton faces meaningful legal exposure and far greater confidence that the political fallout is turning toward Trump instead.
Trump’s demands follow the release of more than 20,000 Epstein-related documents published this week by the House Oversight Committee. According to Reuters, the president urged the Justice Department to investigate Clinton, Larry Summers, Reid Hoffman and JPMorgan. The files included messages where Epstein claimed Trump “knew about the girls” and described him as “evil beyond belief.” CNN reported that Epstein repeatedly vented about Trump in private emails from 2011 through 2019. The Guardian added that senior White House officials have been pressuring Republicans to block further disclosures.
Despite the effort to refocus attention on Clinton, the reaction on Kalshi tells a sharply different story. In the market on who will be arrested before 2027, Clinton trades at just 14¢. That is up from 7¢ earlier in the week but still firmly within the range of remote possibility. Even with new headlines pulling Clinton back into the Epstein narrative, traders view her legal risk as minimal.
House prepares for Epstein file vote
Clinton’s odds have moved only around the margins. Trump’s own political exposure is increasing much more dramatically. A major driver of market repricing is the House’s upcoming vote on whether to force the Justice Department to release its complete set of Epstein investigative files. The measure gained momentum after House Speaker Mike Johnson swore in Rep. Adelita Grijalva, giving supporters the 218th signature required to move the legislation to the floor.
According to The Guardian, White House officials summoned Rep. Lauren Boebert to the Situation Room and reached out to Rep. Nancy Mace in a bid to stop Republicans from supporting the release effort. Both have indicated they remain in favor of disclosure.
Traders now give the bill a 91 percent chance of passing this year in the Epstein Transparency Bill market. Even if the Senate declines to take the bill up and even if Trump ultimately refuses to sign it, a House vote alone heightens political pressure. The process keeps the Epstein issue directly tied to Trump and strengthens calls for public transparency.
Impeachment odds rise but not until after the midterms
The market on when Trump will be impeached shows how traders expect the political consequences to unfold. Impeachment before January 2026 trades in the low single digits, reflecting the reality that a Republican-controlled House has little incentive to pursue the matter.
The probability of impeachment before January 2028 has jumped to 72 percent, rising more than 30 points in recent days. Traders appear to view impeachment not as an immediate risk but as a significant possibility once the next Congress is seated.
This distinction matters. Market movement aligns closely with expectations for who will control the House after the 2026 midterms.
Markets price a 2026 Democratic majority
The House control market now gives Democrats a 71 percent chance of retaking the chamber in 2026. If that happens, a Democratic majority would likely have little hesitation in launching oversight or impeachment proceedings, especially if the Epstein files continue to reveal damaging material and if the White House resists disclosure.
In other words, markets are not responding to the daily political exchange as much as they are to the broader institutional landscape. Impeachment is unlikely under the current Congress but becomes plausible under a new one.
The takeaway
While Trump attempts to frame Epstein as a problem for Democrats, prediction markets continue to show the opposite. For traders, the real political threat is accumulating around the president.
Clinton’s arrest odds have doubled, but remain low for now (14%)
The House is widely expected to pass the Epstein transparency bill (91%)
Trump’s long-term impeachment odds are rising sharply but only after the 2026 midterms.
Sources: Reuters, Nov. 14, 2025; CNN, Nov. 14, 2025; The Guardian, Nov. 14, 2025.
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