Uruguay and Cape Verde meet today in Miami Gardens in a Group H match that could go a long way toward deciding who joins Spain in the knockout stage. Uruguay opened with a 1-1 draw against Saudi Arabia, while Cape Verde stunned Spain in a scoreless draw in their World Cup debut.
Kalshi traders give Uruguay a 68% chance to win today's match, with a tie at 23% and Cape Verde at 11%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
Uruguay vs. Cape Verde What's at stake?
Today's result is realistically a fight for second place in Group H, with Spain already in firm control of the top spot. A win for either side would put them in a much stronger position to advance outright, rather than leaning on goal difference or a wild-card third-place finish to extend their World Cup.
A loss wouldn't necessarily end either team's tournament, since eight of the 12 third-place finishers across all groups also advance to the knockout stage. But neither Uruguay nor Cape Verde wants to leave their fate in the hands of that tiebreaker math.
Spain has all but locked up Group H, sitting at 99% to advance after a dominant performance in their second match today. They raced to a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia behind a goal from Lamine Yamal and a brace from Mikel Oyarzabal, plus a Hassan Al-Tambakti own goal, putting one foot in the round of 32.
Uruguay sits at 79% to advance from the group, while Cape Verde has surged to 51% after their result against Spain, with Saudi Arabia close behind at 35%.
Uruguay's nervy opener
Uruguay needed a late equalizer to salvage a point against Saudi Arabia, with Abdulelah Al-Amri's first-half goal standing up until Maxi Araujo leveled the match in the 79th minute. Federico Valverde struggled in the first half playing out of position on the wing before moving back into central midfield after the break, where Uruguay looked far more dangerous. "With Bielsa, a lot has changed in terms of how we play and press," Valverde said.
Cape Verde's historic point
Cape Verde, the third-smallest nation by population ever to qualify for a World Cup, held Spain scoreless in their tournament debut behind a standout performance from goalkeeper Josimar "Vozinha" Évora Dias, who blocked eight of Spain's 27 shots despite the European champions controlling 75% of possession, The Blazing Musket reports.
The bigger picture
Beyond today's match, Uruguay remains a long shot to win the World Cup outright, sitting at just 0.5% on Kalshi. Cape Verde is an even longer shot at under 1%. France continues to lead the tournament-winner market at 19%, with Spain close behind at 15.2% and England at 12.9%.
Kalshi markets now predict:
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Your opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
