For the first time in more than 17 years, the top four seeds are through to the semifinals of a Grand Slam women's draw. The US Open, specifically, has not seen all four top seeds reach the semifinals in more than 50 years, since 1975.
Top-seeded Aryna Sabalenka will be joined by No. 2 Elena Rybakina, No. 3 Jessica Pegula, and No. 4 Coco Gauff when the women take center stage on Thursday night in Arthur Ashe Stadium in New York.
Sabalenka, the tournament favorite, draws American Jessica Pegula in the first match at 7:00pm ET. Gauff and Rybakina will square off in the night’s final match.
Here is a look at both matches and what prediction market traders expect from a blockbuster semifinal on Thursday.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula Odds
Sabalenka’s quest for a third straight US Open title will pit her against American Jessica Pegula, providing spectators with a rematch of the 2024 US Open final.
The No. 1 seed has been the one to send Pegula home in each of the last two years in New York, defeating her in the final in 2024 and the semifinals in 2025.
Can Pegula write a different story this year? The American is priced as the underdog in their matchup according to Kalshi traders, with odds of 36% as of Thursday morning. Sabalenka, who owns a 9-4 record lifetime against Pegula, is priced at 64%.
The pair have split the last four meetings, with the American winning their latest contest in a three-set victory on the grass in Berlin earlier this year. Their three prior matches also went the distance, with Pegula notching a win in Wuhan in 2025, and Sabalenka fighting through in the WTA Finals and the 2025 US Open semis.
Neither has escaped adversity in their path to the semifinals. Twice Pegula has needed to battle back from a set deficit, escaping against Leylah Fernandez and most recently against American Emma Navarro in the quarterfinals.
On the other hand, Sabalenka, who has faded at critical moments of the last few Grand Slams, needed to overcome a break deficit in quarterfinals to prevail in the third set against Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova.
Otherwise, little separates the pair leading into their semifinal clash. Though traders expect Sabalenka to come out on top, and ultimately hoist the trophy a third consecutive time.
Elena Rybakina vs. Coco Gauff Odds
In the other semifinal, new world No. 1 Elena Rybakina and American Coco Gauff will battle it out for a chance to play in the finals on Saturday.
Kalshi traders make Rybakina a slight favorite with odds of 52% as of Thursday morning.
Despite spending the last few years near the top of the women’s game, Gauff and Rybakina have faced each other on court just twice. A third scheduled meeting ended in a walkover before either player took the court.
They have split the two matches they have played, both on the hard courts in Toronto. The most recent meeting came in August 2026, when Rybakina rallied from a set down to defeat Gauff, handily winning sets two and three in the process.
It is unlikely that anything will be easy on Thursday in a matchup that has considerably more at stake.
Their paths to the semis have been relatively straightforward, though both were pushed on Wednesday. Rybakina rallied from a set deficit to defeat former Olympic gold medalist, Qinwen Zheng. Despite withdrawing in Cincinnati due to injury, Rybakina, the best server in the women’s game, has looked in fine form in her road to the semis.
Gauff breezed into the quarters, but needed to save two match points in the second set of her battle with Roland Garros champion Mirra Andreeva. After a slow start mired with forehand errors and double faults, Gauff found her footing, ultimately frustrating her opponent with her resilience and defensive skills.
While Kalshi traders may make her the underdog, the former US Open champion will be the overwhelming crowd favorite on Thursday.
Sabalenka still the US Open favorite
Aryna Sabalenka will lose her world No. 1 ranking on Monday regardless of what happens the rest of the way. Nevertheless, she is still the favorite to collect her third straight US Open victory, priced at 38%.
Beyond her, the incoming world No. 1 Elena Rybakina is next up, leapfrogging Gauff to become the next most likely victor, according to Kalshi traders. Rybakina’s odds have jumped to 26%, up 19% since Monday morning.
Rounding out the remaining players are Gauff (26%) and Pegula (14%). While both have been to a US Open final before, only Gauff has been victorious, knocking off Sabalenka in a three-set victory in 2023.
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Image Source: Simon Bruty, USTA
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