Wimbledon semifinal odds: Sinner favored as Djokovic chases a record 25th major

Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic meet again in a Wimbledon semifinal, and this time the two men are arriving in very different fashions. Sinner cruised through the quarterfinals in straight sets, while Djokovic survived a five-hour, five-set war against Felix Auger-Aliassime, the longest quarterfinal in Wimbledon history. Only one of them walks away with a spot in Sunday's final.

Traders on Kalshi heavily favor Sinner to reach the final, while the outright title market still has him well clear of the rest of the field.

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Djokovic is chasing a record 25th Grand Slam title and an eighth Wimbledon crown that would tie him with Roger Federer for the most in tournament history. At 39, he's also playing for validation, arriving in London two days removed from his marathon quarterfinal and a mid-match calf injury that briefly threatened his run altogether.

Sinner, meanwhile, is defending his title and looking to end a barren run at the other majors this year, a semifinal loss to Djokovic at the Australian Open followed by a shock second-round exit at the French Open. A win sends him back to the Wimbledon final for a second straight year; a loss would mark his first defeat to Djokovic since their Australian Open meeting in January.

Sinner has been the more efficient player of the two this tournament. He dropped just one set, in an early scare against Miomir Kecmanovic, and has rolled through his last four matches with his serve holding up well on grass throughout.

But despite Sinner's current hot streak, he does not seem to be underestimating his opponent.

"[Djokovic] has won this tournament so many times and he knows exactly how to approach it," Sinner told Tennis365 ahead of the match.

Meanwhile, Djokovic's route could not have looked more different. He needed four sets in three of his first four matches, then five sets and five hours to get past Auger-Aliassime, a match that included treatment for a calf issue and finished with just minutes to spare before Wimbledon's curfew.

Their two most recent meetings split evenly: Sinner beat Djokovic in this same semifinal a year ago, while Djokovic beat Sinner at this year's Australian Open.

"I still try to prove to myself and others that I'm able to compete with the best," Djokovic told ESPN after his quarterfinal win.

Zoom out to the outright winner market and Sinner remains the clear favorite to lift the title, with the physical toll of Djokovic's quarterfinal a real factor in how the market sees the rest of the draw. Zverev, who advanced through the other half of the bracket, sits as the next-best price behind Sinner, while Djokovic and wild card Arthur Fery trail further back.

Whoever wins Friday's semifinal will head into Sunday's final as the favorite regardless of opponent, with the market treating this match as close to a title eliminator in its own right.

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