Wimbledon semifinal odds: Zverev favored as Fery chases a wild card fairytale

Alexander Zverev and Arthur Fery meet in a Wimbledon semifinal that pairs two wildly different stories.

Zverev is into the final four at the All England Club for the first time in his career, fresh off his first Grand Slam title at Roland Garros last month. Fery, a 23-year-old British wild card ranked outside the top 100, has stunned his way through five rounds to become just the second wild card to reach a men's semifinal at Wimbledon, after Goran Ivanisevic won it all in 2001.

Traders on Kalshi see Zverev as a heavy favorite to reach Sunday's final, while the outright title market still rates Fery as a distant long shot.

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Zverev has reached the championship match at the other three majors, but Wimbledon had long been the outlier on his résumé, the one major where he had never previously reached the semifinals, and where he was eliminated in the first round just last year. A win Friday would send him to a first Wimbledon final and keep alive his bid for a second straight Grand Slam title.

Fery, meanwhile, is one of just nine men ranked outside the top 100 to reach a Grand Slam semifinal since 1985, and a win would make him the lowest-ranked Wimbledon finalist in the sport's modern history. He carried a career 6-8 record at tour level into this fortnight.

Zverev arrives having ended a seven-match losing streak to Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals, a result that also completed his set of semifinal appearances at all four majors. He has not lost to anyone outside the top 100 since April 2024, a stat that looms directly over Friday's match given Fery's ranking. Zverev has not shied away from the reality that Centre Court will be firmly behind his opponent.

"You guys can all be for Fery, I understand it," Zverev told reporters after his quarterfinal win.

Fery, for his part, has lost just one set across his last two rounds, beating French Open runner-up Flavio Cobolli 6-4, 7-6(4), 6-0 to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal. The Briton grew up five minutes from the All England Club and has leaned on home support at every stage of his run.

"I have the crowd behind me here, which is a huge help," Fery told Tennis World USA ahead of the match.

Zoom out to the outright winner market and Zverev sits as the clear second most likely behind Sinner, with his Roland Garros breakthrough clearly shifting how traders view his chances on a second straight surface. Fery's odds remain a long shot by comparison, reflecting just how far he has already exceeded expectations rather than any real belief he can go all the way.

Whoever wins Friday's semifinal will face the winner of Sinner and Djokovic in Sunday's final, where Sinner remains the heavy favorite regardless of who reaches the title match from this half of the draw.

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