World Cup award odds: Who will win the Golden Boot, Golden Ball, and more?

The 2026 World Cup final is tomorrow at MetLife Stadium, with Argentina defending their title against Spain. But before the championship match kicks off, the tournament's individual honors are already taking shape, and the markets tell a clear story heading into Sunday.

From a two-man Golden Boot race to a near-certain Golden Ball favorite, here is where every major award stands heading into Sunday's final.

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Kylian Mbappé enters Sunday as the heavy favorite at 93% to claim the Golden Boot, while Lionel Messi sits at 7%. Two goals and an assist in today's third-place win over England pushed Mbappé to 10 goals and 4 assists on the tournament, tying Messi on assists and pulling clear on goals. Messi would need a goal or two assists in tomorrow's final to overtake him.

France's star spent the tournament in a relentless back-and-forth with Messi, the pair trading the lead on goals and assists through the knockout rounds. Messi had flipped the tiebreaker in Argentina's semifinal win over England with two assists, moving to four for the tournament. Today's performance swung it decisively back: Mbappé's brace gave him a two-goal cushion heading into the final, and his record of 14 goal involvements at a single World Cup is the most since records began in 1966.

Traders have also priced in the Silver Boot and Bronze Boot. Messi is the overwhelming Silver Boot favorite at 92%, reflecting his near-certain second-place finish if Mbappé holds on for the Golden Boot. Jude Bellingham leads the Bronze Boot market at 93%, with the England midfielder having finished the tournament on six goals after back-to-back knockout braces against Mexico and Norway.

The Golden Ball race tells a different story than the Golden Boot. Traders give Messi a 90% chance to claim the award for best player of the tournament, with Rodri at 6%, Lamine Yamal at 3%, and Mbappé at just 2%. The lopsided market reflects both the farewell narrative around Messi's final World Cup and his semifinal performance, which featured two decisive assists in Argentina's comeback win over England.

The Golden Ball is voted on by accredited media before the final concludes, which means a player's tournament arc matters as much as their output in any single match. Messi is the only player to have won the award twice, having taken it home in 2014 and 2022. A third would be historic by any measure.

Rodri's case rests on Spain's path to the final as the tournament's best-organized side. The 2024 Ballon d'Or winner has been the anchor of Spain's possession game throughout, and FIFA's own rankings have placed him at the top of the Defending category. Whether voters reward a title winner or the player with the most compelling individual story, both are playing in tomorrow's final.

The Silver Ball and Bronze Ball markets are also live on Kalshi. Mbappé leads the Silver Ball at 60%, with Rodri at 26% and Bellingham at 14%. Bellingham leads the Bronze Ball at 57%, with Rodri at 26% and Jeremy Doku at 19%.

Spain goalkeeper Unai Simón leads the Golden Glove market at 88%, with Argentina's Emiliano Martínez at 16% and Cape Verde's Vozinha at 6%. The award goes to the tournament's best goalkeeper, and with both finalists squaring off tomorrow, traders are pricing in a strong lean toward the Spanish side. Simón has been the bedrock of a Spain defense that conceded just once in six matches heading into the semifinals. Martínez, the reigning Golden Glove winner from Qatar 2022, will have one final chance to make his case on Sunday.

Lamine Yamal is the runaway favorite at 79%, with teammate Pau Cubarsí at 25%. The award goes to the standout young player under 21, and with both leading candidates in Sunday's final, the race has effectively become a Spain-internal contest, with Yamal's attacking influence giving him the edge over Cubarsí's defensive work.

Yamal, who turned 19 during the tournament, finished runner-up for the 2025 Ballon d'Or and remains Spain's young talisman in the final. He is also technically eligible for the Golden Ball, which would make a potential double-award outcome one of the more unusual finishes to a World Cup in recent memory.

Norway leads the Fair Play market at 83% despite being eliminated in the quarterfinals. Spain sits at 18%. The award is presented to the team with the most exemplary fair play behavior, and only teams that advance past the group stage are considered. Norway's disciplined run through the tournament, before falling to England, has apparently left a strong enough impression for traders to price them as the heavy favorite even with one game remaining for the finalist sides.

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