Oscar recap: Kalshi markets correctly call nearly 80% of last night's winners

Last night was a massive night for Hollywood as the 98th Academy Awards celebrated the greatest achievements in cinema over the past year. It was also a massive night for traders on Kalshi, where Oscar markets closed with well over $100 million in trading volume.

That’s a huge jump from $29.6 million in 2025 and just $2.3 million in 2024, showing how quickly prediction markets around the Academy Awards have grown.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice.}

Kalshi’s market forecasts were accurate for nearly 80% of the Oscar markets listed, correctly predicting the winners in 19 of the 24 categories (it was almost 20 out of 24, but more on that later). These forecasts also correctly predicted the ‘Big Five’ awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Original/Adapted Screenplay).

Let's break down the results.

Note: The data from this article comes from 7 PM ET, the moment the show started.

KALSHI'S PICK: Amy Madigan (59%) - Correct!

Traders gave Madigan, who played Aunt Gladys in Weapons, a slight edge over Teyana Taylor (27%) and Wunmi Mosaku (18%).

KALSHI'S PICK: KPop Demon Hunters (94%) - Correct!

Traders predicted this to be a landslide, with the biggest competitors being Zootopia 2 (4%) and Little Amelie or the Character of Rain (2%). Judging by my friends' reactions after this came out, I could've told you the same.

KALSHI'S PICK: Two People Exchanging Saliva (55%) - Incorrect!
WINNER: Tie (1%)

This has only happened six times in Oscar history - the first was in 1932 for Best Actor, and the most recent in 2013 for Sound Editing. Given that the chances for either one of these films summed to 81%, we’d like to count this one as half a point for Kalshi. But that wouldn’t be fair to the users who lost despite picking one of the two winners, or the traders who accurately predicted a tie. So we won’t.

KALSHI'S PICK: Sean Penn (77%) - Correct!
Traders saw Penn as the favorite in this race for his role as Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another. He was trailed by Stellan Skarsgard (8%) and Delroy Lindo (17%).

KALSHI'S PICK: Golden (84%) - Correct!

Traders always had Golden as a clear first place, beating out I Lied To You (19%) and Dear Me (2%). Personally, I think it's a banger song.

KALSHI'S PICK: Paul Thomas Anderson (94%) - Correct!

Traders had Anderson winning in a landslide, with the biggest competitors being Ryan Coogler (6%) and Chloe Zhao (1%).

KALSHI'S PICK: One Battle After Another (77%) - Incorrect!
WINNER: Sinners (19%)

This was arguably the most notable miss of the night for Kalshi traders, since it’s a pretty major award, and the market had close to $4 million in volume. That said, Sinners was still priced with a one-in-five chance of winning, so it wasn’t exactly a huge miss (more on that later).

KALSHI'S PICK: Michael B. Jordan (58%) - Correct!

Traders saw this as easily the closest of the major races. Jordan won his first Oscar, after being trailed closely by Timothee Chalamet (33%) - who I thought had an amazing performance in Marty Supreme - and Leonardo DiCaprio (5%) for his role in One Battle After Another.

Chalamet had led the market for months after contracts first opened. But on March 1, Jordan’s odds began climbing after he won at the Actor Awards. The two flipped positions on March 6, and Jordan’s lead grew further after backlash over Chalamet’s comments about ballet and opera went viral. Jordan’s odds later reached as high as 60%.

KALSHI'S PICK: Jessie Buckley (98%) - Correct!

Traders had this as another landslide, with Buckley being praised for her performance as Agnes Shakespeare in Hammet. She beat out Rose Byrne (2%) and Emma Stone (1%).

KALSHI'S PICK: One Battle After Another (78%) - Correct!

Traders had One Battle After Another as a heavy favorite, being trailed by Sinners (22%) and Hammet (3%). This also makes One Battle After Another the winner of "Which film will win the most Oscars", as this was its 5th and final one of the night.

Traders didn't manage to predict Best Animated Short ($366k volume), Best Casting ($777k), and Best Documentary Feature Film ($716k). It's worth noting that the volumes for these awards fell on the lower side, compared to ones like Best Actor ($24m) and Best Picture ($23m) that were correctly called.

Markets with more volume are usually the ones that draw more interest, and thus will typically have more accurate odds due to a greater number of knowledgeable traders influencing the price.

It's also worth noting that the races that we couldn't predict are not a function of prediction markets, but rather, basic probability. Unlikely events can still happen - something priced at 20% (like Sinners to win for Best Cinematography) still means it happens one out of every five times. But over the long run, the collective aggregation of dedicated Kalshi users will only become more and more accurate.

But for now, we’re happy with 19 out of 24!

Keep scrolling to see markets we haven’t covered yet, which are listed below.

See you next time.

KALSHI'S PICK: Butterfly (64%) - Incorrect!
WINNER: The Girl Who Cried Pearls (22%)

KALSHI'S PICK: Frankenstein (91%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: Frankenstein (93%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: Sinners (76%) - Incorrect!
WINNER: One Battle After Another (17%)

KALSHI'S PICK: One Battle After Another (95%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: Sinners (96%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: Frankenstein (92%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: Avatar: Fire and Ash (93%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: All the Empty Rooms (70%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: The Perfect Neighbor - Incorrect!
WINNER: Mr. Nobody against Putin (26%)

KALSHI'S PICK: Sinners (96%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: F1 (80%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: One Battle After Another (82%) - Correct!

KALSHI'S PICK: Sentimental Value (71%) - Correct!

Follow Julian Zhang on X: @julianzhang0
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and do not represent the views of Kalshi Inc. or its affiliates. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and you should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.}