Prediction market-implied odds of Anthropic confirming an IPO before Jan. 1 jumped to 93% as of Monday afternoon, a 20 percentage point increase over the last several hours. The probability of a confirmation before Dec. 1 stands an 87% chance, rising from 65% yesterday, according to Kalshi's event contract.
The improved odds come after Anthropic released its S-1 filing on Monday with the Securities and Exchange Commission, stating its plans to list under the ticker symbol “ANT” on the Nasdaq. The AI heavyweight is likely to start marketing for its IPO as early as the week of Nov. 9, Bloomberg reported, while targeting a Thanksgiving week debut, per a Fortune report.
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By the numbers
Anthropic is five years old and generated $16.3 billion in revenue for the first six months of this year, an increase from $1.2 billion in the year-earlier period, the prospectus said. The company’s revenue figure translates to $6.6 million of revenue per employee.
Meanwhile, the company posted a net loss of more than $80.7 million in the same period, a jump from around $13 million a year prior in part due to a one-time $72.4 billion accounting charge related to Anthropic’s convertible notes, per The New York Times.
The firm was previously in talks of raising at a $900 billion valuation, but with its IPO, it could bring in over $100 billion, elevating its valuation to $2 trillion and exceeding SpaceX as the world’s largest public listing.
“We encourage you, as a prospective owner of our stock, not to think of your purchase in purely transactional terms,” said Anthropic's seven co-founders in its filing. “We hope you will see it instead as an opportunity to be part of something greater. The advent of machine intelligence is one of the seminal moments in human history.”
Anthropic's primary revenue model centers on pay-for-intelligence where customers pay for usage, building applications integrating Claude, Anthropic's popular chatbot that has a 59% chance of taking first place as the best AI at the end of 2026, leading Google's Gemini at 31% and OpenAI's ChatGPT at 6.5%.
Risks make up a large chunk of the filing
“We believe that AI is one of the most consequential technologies in human history,” Anthropic’s seven co-founders said. “If managed well, it could rapidly accelerate scientific innovation, greatly increase economic growth rates, bring cures for major diseases within reach, and solve problems that have resisted generations of human effort.”
At the same time, more than 90 pages of Anthropic’s 300-page filing focused on risks related to the company, including the company’s ability to secure enormous quantities of specialized compute needed for model training and the possibility of models behaving in “unintended, misaligned, or autonomous ways.”
“Concerns have been raised both within our organization and by other researchers, regulators, policymakers, and industry participants that sufficiently advanced AI systems could, if not developed, deployed, and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight, and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, particularly if such systems were misused, replicated, weaponized, or allowed to operate with a high degree of autonomy,” the prospectus said.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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