Anthropic, the artificial intelligence juggernaut and Claude maker, might pursue an initial public offering (IPO) at a valuation above $2 trillion before the end of the year.
The firm’s plans are getting increased attention after Reuters exclusively reported details from its planned IPO prospectus, a document which outlines its financial details and risks associated with the business ahead of a public offering.
Amid the report, Kalshi traders now expect an official IPO announcement before the end of the year, with odds now trading at 78%.
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Anthropic IPO odds jump after prospectus details emerge
Anthropic announced that it had confidentially submitted a draft S-1 form, a mandatory registration statement as a firm prepares to go public, to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in June 2026.
But at the time, the firm noted that a proposed public offering would “depend on market conditions and other factors.”
Odds for it to officially announce an IPO before 2027 had surged to as high as 85% around that announcement, but fell to as low as 67% earlier this week as the year heads toward its close.
Nevertheless, odds have surged back up to 78% in the wake of new exclusive reporting from Reuters, which reportedly obtained a look at the artificial intelligence firm’s IPO prospectus, a development that Kalshi traders appear to have taken as a sign that an IPO announcement could be near.
Odds for an even earlier announcement, like before November 1, have also moved, now trading at 21%. Reuters previously reported that the firm’s trading debut was likely to be pushed until after the midterm elections on November 3.
However, the market can resolve yes with an effective S-1 registration, IPO pricing, or a ticker assignment by a securities exchange, even if the public debut happens after November 1, according to its official rules.
As such, odds for an announcement before December 1 are now trading around 54%.
AI slowdown? Anthropic warns of potential catastrophe
In the 261-page prospectus seen by Reuters, the firm reportedly dedicates 80 pages to the systemic risks that surround its business and the artificial intelligence landscape.
Those include warnings of “catastrophic or existential risks to humanity.” The report piggybacks on a recent essay from the firm’s CEO Dario Amodei, who called for a slowdown of development in the sector for the sake of safety.
“My first concern is that, since roughly this summer, AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AI’s growing ability to build the next generation of AI,” Amodei wrote.
“Left unchecked, it could outrun our ability to understand and control these systems, and so must be pursued very carefully, if at all,” he added.
President Donald Trump was quick to push back on the thought of slowing down, but traders have increased odds that he may publicly change his tune in the wake of the Anthropic IPO prospectus.
Odds for the President to publicly call for an AI slowdown before 2027 are now trading at 27%, up 14 percentage points in the last day of trading.
Anthropic now heavily favored to confirm IPO before OpenAI
On the heels of its confidential S-1 announcement in June 2026, Anthropic became the heavy favorite to confirm its IPO before competitor OpenAI, according to Kalshi traders.
Those odds have remained consistent, with traders pricing Anthropic at 94% to confirm its IPO before the ChatGPT-maker.
In August 2026, the OpenAI CFO reportedly told employees that the firm would be a “public company in 2027 or sooner,” but Kalshi traders do not believe the official announcement is imminent.
Traders price the likelihood of an official announcement for Sam Altman’s firm before January 1, 2027 at just 1%. Even when zooming out, traders price an announcement before June 1, 2027 at 49%.
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