While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues his efforts to secure additional support from US President Donald Trump, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot maintains a sizable lead in Kalshi's market for Israel's next prime minister. Traders now give Eisenkot a 52% chance of becoming prime minister following the election, compared with Netanyahu's 26%. Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett trails both candidates with 10%. Netanyahu's odds have slowly declined since the summer, having not led since early July 2026 amid continued conflict in the region.
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Polls show Netanyahu’s Likud trailing
With Netanyahu seeking another term as prime minister, recent polling indicates his Likud party is facing a difficult contest against Eisenkot’s Yashar party. According to The Jerusalem Post, recent polling averages show Yashar projected to secure 23 Knesset seats, compared with just 20 for Likud. Netanyahu’s party currently holds 32 seats in Israel’s 120-member parliament. The polling numbers are consistent with Kalshi markets, as Yashar currently maintains a 75% chance of winning the most seats in Tuesday’s election.
However, securing the most parliamentary seats does not automatically determine the next prime minister. The formation of a governing coalition will ultimately play a critical role in determining who leads Israel’s next government.
Trump support becomes major campaign issue
As the election approaches, Netanyahu has intensified his efforts to secure additional public support from President Trump, hoping to generate momentum during the final days of the campaign.
Trump publicly endorsed Netanyahu last week, describing him as a key partner in confronting Iran. According to The Jerusalem Post, Netanyahu has continued pushing for additional statements of support, reportedly speaking with Trump twice over a three-day period.
While Trump has made his preference clear, other administration officials have taken a more neutral approach. Vice President JD Vance recently declined to endorse Netanyahu, while a senior State Department official indicated that Washington remains prepared to work with whichever government emerges following the election.
With the United States playing a substantial role in Israel’s regional security and diplomatic efforts, the relationship between Washington and Israel’s next government remains a major issue surrounding the election.
Iran reports raise questions about election date
Another developing controversy involves reports that Netanyahu sought military action against Iran in the days leading up to the election.
Netanyahu reportedly pushed for a joint US-Israel strike against Iran before Tuesday’s vote, according to CNN, but Trump did not approve the operation. Israel’s Channel 12 separately reported disagreements between Netanyahu and senior defense officials over proposed military action that could have resulted in renewed confrontation with Iran.
Takeaway
With Israel’s elections approaching, Netanyahu continues seeking additional American support while opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot maintains higher odds on Kalshi. Recent projections show Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Likud in parliamentary seats.
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