Good afternoon traders,
It may feel like summer just started, but fall is almost here, and the midterm elections are less than three months away.
However, we just wrote about the midterms a few weeks ago. And as it happens, the 2028 presidential election has been making headlines as of late, even though it won't take place for another two years.
So with that in mind, let’s take a look at the current state of the race for the White House.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
The Democratic presidential nominee
There is no denying that the 2024 presidential election went poorly for the Democratic Party. Joe Biden dropped out of the election on July 21, 2024, leaving Kamala Harris as the presidential nominee for only 107 days.
With that still fresh in the party's memory, the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will need to demonstrate strong leadership.
So, who’s currently in the running?
According to our markets, Gavin Newsom was the favorite for quite a while. But after a scandal involving Newsom's affair with a former aide resurfaced, AOC and Jon Ossoff gained momentum, with AOC becoming the frontrunner late last week.
Historically, Governors have performed well in national elections, which makes a bull case for Newsom. Governors can point to the fact that they've already run a state, and in a bit of good news for Newsom, California is our largest and wealthiest. Newsom has also demonstrated strong campaigning and fundraising skills, as well as the ability to debate Republicans on stage.
Unfortunately, being the Governor of California is a double-edged sword. The ongoing housing crisis in the state paired with very loud homelessness and immigration concerns that spread across social media and news platforms almost daily will be baggage in his campaign. Republicans would no doubt weaponize these points against him.
Meanwhile, AOC has a massive online presence, is popular with younger voters, and identifies as a Democratic Socialist, often siding with Zohran Mamdani and Bernie Sanders. She's proven her ability to dominate media coverage and been a great small dollar fundraiser. With that being said, the same stances that are popular with younger Democrats could be polarizing to older primary voters. Paired with limited executive political experience, she could be a tougher sell for the Democratic nominee compared to Newsom.
But regardless of whether she fails to become the presidential nominee, our VP nominee market has her as one of the most likely Democratic VP nominees.
The last Democratic presidential nominee worth highlighting is Jon Ossoff. He's not as well known as Newsom or AOC, but he has some advantages of his own. He's center left, which appeals to a larger Democratic voter base, and serves as the senior senator for Georgia. Georgia being a swing state adds an additional benefit. But because he's lesser known, he's likely to have an uphill battle getting the nomination. With that said, if he's able to win reelection in the Georgia Senate in November (he currently has a 92% chance of doing so), we wouldn't be surprised to see our markets respond accordingly.
The Republican presidential nominee
Moving on to the Republican presidential nominees, traders seem to believe the race is basically between J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. Since Vance is currently serving as Trump's VP, he's the most obvious successor. Whether or not he gets the nomination boils down to how the current administration is perceived, especially by those who identify as Republican but not MAGA.
But regardless of these voters, both Rubio and Vance have been instrumental in the current Trump administration. That creates an interesting dilemma: two people with largely the same record and worldview, forced to differentiate themselves on the successes and failures of the same administration.
As it stands though, our markets are predicting Vance as the presidential nominee and Rubio as the 2028 Republican VP nominee. We'll be keeping our eyes peeled to see how this unfolds in the coming months.
The election as a whole
So far all of our focus has been on each party's nominee. But now we'll take a look at the bigger picture and turn our attention to the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner.
Obviously, the nominee for each party directly influences the likelihood of that individual and party winning the election. But there are some interesting things happening in these markets.
Currently, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and Jon Ossoff are traders' top picks for winning the Presidential election. While Vance and Rubio aren't a surprise here, Ossoff being above AOC and Gavin Newsom is. As we stated above, Ossoff is a real contender in the race for the Democratic Party nominee, but has a large gap to make up behind AOC and Newsom. This makes his position as a presidential election frontrunner somewhat surprising.
Perhaps even more interesting however, is that despite Vance and Rubio being the most likely individuals to win the presidency, traders are still forecasting the Democratic Party to win the 2028 Presidential Election, regardless of who they nominate.
While a lot of politics is unpredictable, there is one thing we can confidently say: elections are crazy and when things inevitably change, our markets will react to them in real time.
No matter what your political opinions are, or whether you just hope both parties have fun, there are tons of markets related to 2028 Presidential Election, 2026 Midterms, and other elections you can trade on Kalshi.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital | Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
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