ARK Invest, an investment adviser focused solely on disruptive innovation, and Kalshi, the world’s largest prediction market, today announced a collaboration to spearhead institutional adoption of prediction markets as a new layer of analytical insight and risk management tools.
Prediction markets are rapidly emerging as a new tool of financial research. By aggregating diverse information and translating it into real-time probability signals about future outcomes, prediction markets offer unique insights that can inform investment strategy. By requesting and monitoring markets tied to key business metrics and industry developments, ARK Invest will evaluate how these signals can inform its research process and portfolio strategy.
Through this initiative, ARK Invest will focus on three primary use cases for prediction markets in finance:
Market-based research signals: Probability markets can serve as an additional input alongside fundamental and quantitative analysis, offering continuously updated expectations derived from a broad set of participants.
Forward-looking insight into business outcomes: Markets tied to key performance indicators—such as production volumes, deliveries, regulatory approvals, and technological milestones—provide real-time expectations about future performance.
Event-specific risk management: Investors can use event markets to hedge exposure to discrete outcomes that impact portfolio positions, from company-specific developments to broader macroeconomic and sector risks.
Some of these markets are already live on Kalshi, including those tracking nonfarm productivity and the U.S. deficit-to-GDP ratio, offering early insight into how these signals can be incorporated into ARK’s research process and portfolio strategy.
“Bringing prediction markets into institutional workflows is a natural next step for innovation in financial research,” said Cathie Wood, Founder, CEO, and CIO of ARK Invest. “We believe these signals can enhance our research process and provide valuable context around key drivers across disruptive sectors, helping investors better quantify uncertainty and make more informed decisions.”
“We believe prediction markets offer some of the purest expressions of risk around key economic and company-specific outcomes,” said Nick Grous, Director of Research at ARK Invest. “Through our partnership with Kalshi, we’re excited to help bring these forward-looking signals to a broader set of investors.”
“As institutional adoption of prediction markets grows, Kalshi is seeing increased demand for a formal market request pipeline to help investors leverage the wisdom of the crowd,” said Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi. “This was a huge part of the original vision for Kalshi: pricing everything so that the world’s most important institutions could make better decisions.”
The partnership reflects a broader shift in the investment landscape. Prediction markets, once largely academic or experimental, are now emerging as a viable component of the professional investor toolkit.