Earnings report roundup: Kalshi's KPI markets flag key thresholds for Airbnb, Coinbase, and Lyft

Three major companies report first-quarter earnings today, and Kalshi markets are tracking their key performance indicators: home-rental platform Airbnb, crypto exchange Coinbase, and ride-share company Lyft.

Kalshi's KPI markets track the probability of specific outcomes and how likely a company is to hit a given threshold, giving a more granular read on expectations than a simple beat-or-miss headline. Here is a closer look at what traders are forecasting for each company.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice.}

The market for Airbnb forecasts 121.9 million bookings for Q1.

In Q4, Airbnb's revenue rose 12% year over year, and the company reported 121.9 million bookings — a 10% increase from the prior year's quarter. Earnings per share and net income came in below expectations due to a rise in expenses, but the underlying booking growth appears to be driving trader confidence heading into Q1.

Coinbase's volume market forecasts $296 billion in trading volume for Q1. Traders price volume above $200 billion at 91%, above $205 billion at 68%, and above $210 billion at 45%.

Coinbase's Q4 results were mixed. Quarterly revenue fell short of its $1.83 billion–$1.85 billion guidance range, coming in at $1.78 billion, and earnings per share dropped from $1.05 to $0.66. Full-year revenue told a different story, rising 9% year over year to $7.2 billion — though softer trading activity weighed on the quarterly numbers.

Lyft's market forecasts 243.5 million rides for Q1. Traders price rides above 240 million at 83%, above 245 million at 34%, and above 250 million at 8%.

Lyft's Q4 results gave traders reason for cautious optimism. Gross bookings rose 19% year over year to $5.1 billion, with 29.2 million active riders, and revenue finished at $1.6 billion — a 3% increase from the same period the prior year. Lyft also reported net income of $2.8 billion, though the figure was boosted by a one-time tax valuation allowance release.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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^{Image Credit: Ivan Radic}

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