Braves vs. Phillies odds: Kalshi traders price Game 3 as dead even

Welcome to October baseball, officially. 

While the other three Wild Card Series were wrapped up without much drama, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have provided more than enough in their first two games. The NL East division rivals have traded late leads in each game to split the series 1-1 before a decisive Game 3 on Thursday. 

First pitch for the elimination game will take place at 8:00pm ET. Prior to taking the field, Kalshi traders are pricing the teams evenly at 50%. 

^{For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is the Official Prediction Market Partner of the Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, and Los Angeles Dodgers.}

After dropping Game 1 in dramatic fashion, the Phillies resurrected their season on Wednesday, overcoming a 3-1 deficit in the 8th inning to force a decider. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hit back-to-back home runs to tie the game, and Alec Bohm hit a solo home run in the 10th inning to propel the team to victory.

Once more, the Phillies were able to complete the game by using just three pitchers, relying heavily on left-hander Cristopher Sanchez, who recorded 20 of the 30 outs in the game. 

Right-hander Andrew Painter closed the door, throwing three scoreless innings and leaving the Phillies with lots of ammunition heading into Game 3. 

The Braves entered the seventh inning leading again Wednesday, but this time could not overcome a pair of late runs from the Phillies. Left-hander Dylan Lee allowed two home runs and the team eventually handed the ball to its best two relievers, Didier Fuentes and Rasiel Iglesias, for the second straight game. 

This time though, the team did not walk away victorious and their usage of Fuentes and Iglesias creates questions about the pair’s availability heading into Game 3. Though Iglesias has previously worked three-straight games before, he hasn’t done it at all this season. Likewise, Fuentes has never worked in three consecutive games in his young career. 

Will the Braves be able to rely on them should the situation warrant it in a winner-take-all Game 3? 

A series full of twists and turns deserves a dramatic Game 3, like a tight affair that could be anyone’s ballgame. 

That’s how Kalshi traders are pricing Game 3, with odds for both trading around 50%. Early trading has seen traders give each team a slight edge, though neither has been priced above 50.8% as of Thursday morning. 

Perhaps some of that is due to the uncertainty that surrounds both pitching staffs ahead of Game 3. 

The Phillies are expected to turn toward right-hander Aaron Nola as a starter, but according to manager Don Mattingly, it's "all hands on deck." Game 1 starter Jesus Luzardo is apparently available, despite throwing five innings on Tuesday. Furthermore, Painter, who closed out Wednesday's victory across three innings, is available as well.

The biggest question marks surround All-Star closer Jhoan Duran and right-handed starter Zack Wheeler. Duran got the loss on Tuesday, throwing 27 pitches across multiple innings during the affair, but was reportedly “iffy” after playing catch Wednesday. 

Wheeler on the other hand was forced into action in the final game of the regular season, throwing 97 pitches in six innings of work. Despite being on three days rest, it’s “almost a certainty,” he pitches on Thursday, according to Phillies beat reporter Todd Zolecki. 

Outside of the bullpen usage, the Braves have some other question marks, though they will likely hand the ball to right-hander Grant Holmes. While it is unknown whether Holmes will start or enter after an opener, he's likely to get most of the action on the bump. He was solid in more than 20 innings of work against the Phillies this season, pitching to a 3.05 ERA in four appearances. But there is little room for error given the stakes on Thursday.

The winner of Thursday’s game will travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers on Saturday. 

Three of four Wild Card Series have already been decided, with the New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, and Chicago White Sox all punching their ticket to their league’s respective Division Series. 

The dominant performances by the Yankees and Padres have helped fuel their championship odds. Kalshi traders now price the Yankees as the second-most-likely champion, trading at 17% on Thursday. The Yankees made quick work of their rival Boston Red Sox and now will have a few extra days of rest, perhaps enough to add Aaron Judge to their ALDS roster ahead of a matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays.

At this time last month, the Padres odds to win the World Series were trading at just 1%. After sweeping the Cubs in the Wild Card Series, those odds are now trading above 10%. The Padres will now travel to Milwaukee to take on baseball’s best team throughout the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers hold the third best odds to win the World Series, now trading at 16.4%. 

The lone remaining Wild Card teams, the Phillies and the Braves, are trading at 5% and 4.4%, respectively. 

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Image Source: The Atlanta Braves

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