In 2012, you would have had to pay someone $400 to Photoshop this stupid picture.
This column is commentary on Kalshi market prices, not investment advice. Trading involves risk, and so does buying Chargers season tickets.
Nine weeks in, the NFL has hit the point where "it's early" turns into "it's over." San Francisco and Buffalo are both 7-1. The 0-8 Chargers are the only winless team left two months after they expected to be a playoff team.
In August, traders had the Rams as the best team in football. The Rams are 5-4 and tied for second in their own division, while the Jaguars are third in the entire league. Green Bay is 6-3 and in last place. Carolina is 3-5 and in first.
So here's the midseason report, division by division, with every team's Kalshi Power Score and where traders have each division race.
(For the latest odds, visit Kalshi's NFL hub and Power Rankings.)
Power Scores as of Saturday night, Nov. 14. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (7-1) · Power Score: 95.8
Buffalo has five straight contenders between Thanksgiving and Christmas, and Josh Allen leads the league at 8.6 yards per attempt. The Bills are chasing their first AFC championship since 1993, back when their biggest problem was blowing the big game.
New England Patriots (5-4) · Power Score: 56.2
Drake Maye has 11 interceptions and the defense has eight takeaways, good for a tie for the worst turnover differential in football. Nine months after playing in the championship, the Patriots are 5-4, and so is the team that beat them.
New York Jets (2-7) · Power Score: 12.6
Geno Smith's QBR drops to 34.8 once he crosses midfield, so the Jets have built an offense that gets worse the closer it gets to the end zone. Aaron Glenn is 5-21 as head coach, and his team keeps losing close games on clock management. Nobody in the building should have a better feel for time running out.
Miami Dolphins (1-7) · Power Score: 9.6
Miami is starting a roster mostly in its first or second NFL season, and Malik Willis has been pressured at the second-highest rate in the league. Rebuilds take time, and Willis is spending most of his on his back.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) · Power Score: 81.1
Joe Burrow is PFF's highest-graded quarterback by a wide margin, and the offense converts 53.6% of its third downs, best in the league. The defense is the reason he has to be.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) · Power Score: 65.9
Pittsburgh is 6-2 with Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy, a reunion nobody in Green Bay wanted to see work. Rodgers averages 6.5 air yards per attempt and DK Metcalf has disappeared. The Steelers paid for a deep threat and hired a checkdown.
Cleveland Browns (5-4) · Power Score: 28.4
Cleveland has five game-winning drives and has already matched last season's win total under first-year coach Todd Monken. Deshaun Watson has a 40.8 QBR, the most expensive way anyone has ever gone 5-4. Traders give the Browns 4% to win the division, two points ahead of Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) · Power Score: 22.5
Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are both on injured reserve, and undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano threw for 60 yards in his first start, a 33-10 loss to Jacksonville. If Jacoby Brissett starts Monday, he's the fourth Ravens quarterback in four weeks, a rotation the offensive line has been running since September. The opponent is the 0-8 Chargers and Jim Harbaugh, whose old defensive coordinator, Jesse Minter, left him to run Baltimore. Somebody's losing streak ends Monday night.
AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) · Power Score: 92.6
Jacksonville has four wins by 23 or more points, a franchise record for a season, and Trevor Lawrence has the lowest off-target rate in the league. The Jaguars also have the easiest remaining schedule in football, courtesy of a division whose other three teams are a combined 6-19.
Houston Texans (3-5) · Power Score: 41.1
C.J. Stroud has 16 touchdowns and two interceptions, and the running backs average 3.4 yards a carry. Last week the Texans sacked Justin Herbert eight times, still three fewer than the number of times Herbert has thrown it to the other team.
Indianapolis Colts (2-7) · Power Score: 10.5
Indianapolis fired GM Chris Ballard and traded Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, the perfect setup for a tank, except the Colts' first-round pick belongs to the Jets. Every Colts loss is a gift to New York, the most generous thing Indianapolis has done for anybody in years.
Tennessee Titans (1-7) · Power Score: 7.1
Tennessee is 1-6 in one-score games, and all six of Cam Ward's touchdown passes have come in the fourth quarter. Robert Saleh says Ward is his quarterback "this year," and in coaching, "this year" is the shortest unit of time there is.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) · Power Score: 80.6
Patrick Mahomes is playing through a right elbow injury behind a rookie left tackle. Kansas City's highest-graded player, per PFF, is Kenneth Walker III, the first time in the Mahomes era anyone's been sure the Chiefs had a running back.
Denver Broncos (7-2) · Power Score: 80.0
Denver has won an NFL-record 16 straight one-score games, six of them this season. Bo Nix averages 5.9 air yards per attempt, and the Broncos win by inches and pass by them too.
Las Vegas Raiders (4-5) · Power Score: 21.3
Las Vegas started 3-0 and is already past last season's three wins, then traded Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday. No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza makes his first career start today against the defending champions, with six NFL completions to his name, all in mop-up duty. Welcome to the Raiders.
Los Angeles Chargers (0-8) · Power Score: 4.3
The Chargers are the league's only winless team and have lost 11 straight going back to last December. They hired Mike McDaniel to unlock Justin Herbert, and Herbert has 11 interceptions and six touchdowns. The Chargers hold the No. 1 pick in the draft, the first thing they've led all year.
NFC East
New York Giants (5-3-1) · Power Score: 46.2
New York lost Jaxson Dart for the season and kept winning with Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy, and first-year coach John Harbaugh has the Giants in first place. His brother Jim has Justin Herbert and zero wins. Thanksgiving at the Harbaughs' is going to be very quiet on one side of the table.
Dallas Cowboys (4-5) · Power Score: 35.8
The defense has struggled for the third straight year, long enough to qualify as a tradition in Dallas, and Brian Schottenheimer's job is in question. The only people at The Star who negotiated a better deal this year are the cheerleaders, who unionized.
Washington Commanders (3-5-1) · Power Score: 26.0
Washington tied the Giants in October and beat them Thursday night, so the Commanders are 1-0-1 against the first-place team. Jayden Daniels has seven touchdowns and no interceptions, and his team keeps losing in the fourth quarter. When Washington beat the Eagles 27-10, a Philadelphia writer pointed out the Commanders didn't even play well. In the NFC East, you can win a division game by 17 and get a bad review.
Philadelphia Eagles (2-7) · Power Score: 8.8
Philadelphia started 2-0 and has lost seven straight, its longest skid since 2012, with Jalen Hurts out for the season and Lane Johnson retired. Joe Milton is already the third Eagles quarterback to lose a game this year. This is a city that booed Santa Claus, so five straight playoff trips bought Nick Sirianni about nine weeks.
NFC North
Chicago Bears (7-2) · Power Score: 84.2
Chicago traded three picks for All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons, and Caleb Williams completes 82.8% of his passes when nobody's chasing him. The Bears are on a bye this week, the one Sunday all season a Bears fan can relax.
Detroit Lions (6-2) · Power Score: 69.8
Jared Goff has thrown a touchdown pass in 30 straight games, the longest active streak in the league. In the AFC South, 6-2 gets you 91% to win the division. In the NFC North, it gets you a tie for second.
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) · Power Score: 66.7
Minnesota started 6-0 on Brian Flores' blitz-everything defense, then lost two straight. After trading J.J. McCarthy to the Giants, the Vikings got a combined 39.0 QBR out of Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer, and on Tuesday they brought back Kirk Cousins. Justin Jefferson is averaging a career-low 56.1 yards a game, and he may be the only person in Minnesota excited to see Cousins.
Green Bay Packers (6-3) · Power Score: 62.0
Green Bay has the fewest rushing yards in NFL history for a team with a winning record through eight games, and Jordan Love has thrown multiple touchdowns in all nine. The Packers have stopped pretending the ground is an option. They're 6-3 and in last place.
NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) · Power Score: 40.7
Tampa Bay leads the league in rushing and in run defense and is 3-6 anyway. Baker Mayfield signed an extension, dislocated his thumb and now ranks last in EPA per dropback, in that order.
Carolina Panthers (3-5) · Power Score: 31.4
Carolina leads the NFC South on a three-game losing streak and just fired defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. Bryce Young is having the best season of his career at 274.6 passing yards a game. Traders have the first-place Panthers at 24% to win the division, behind the 3-6 Buccaneers at 39%.
New Orleans Saints (3-5) · Power Score: 27.3
Tyler Shough has been sacked 20 times, and the Saints have yet to put four good quarters in the same game. September's "is Tyler Shough for real" question has been answered, mostly by defensive ends.
Atlanta Falcons (3-6) · Power Score: 24.2
One of Atlanta's three wins under new coach Kevin Stefanski is San Francisco's only loss. Bijan Robinson leads the league in rushing, while Michael Penix Jr. completes 34% of his passes under pressure, worst in football. The Falcons also traded Jessie Bates III for draft picks, a rebuild announced by a team half a game out of first.
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers (7-1) · Power Score: 96.3
San Francisco has the highest Power Score in the league, and Brock Purdy leads the NFL in QBR. Nick Bosa, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk have all missed time. The one guy who hasn't is Purdy, who has started and finished all eight games.
Seattle Seahawks (5-4) · Power Score: 55.3
Seattle won it all in February and is 5-4 in November. Sam Darnold is hurt again, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has half the team's receiving yards. The passing game is one receiver and whoever's healthy enough to throw to him.
Los Angeles Rams (5-4) · Power Score: 50.6
The Rams were supposed to be a superteam, then blew a double-digit lead in Denver and lost at home to Arizona. Matthew Stafford has nine interceptions in nine games. Myles Garrett came back from knee surgery with three sacks, the Rams have won three straight, and the superteam may have been running late.
Arizona Cardinals (3-6) · Power Score: 13.5
Arizona spent the first half trading away Marvin Harrison Jr. and its starting quarterback, and Gardner Minshew now has a UCL injury with Carson Beck next up. The Cardinals have beaten both the Rams and the Chargers, which makes them the undisputed champions of Los Angeles.
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