Best New Artist odds: Olivia Dean leads the field

With music’s biggest night only a few hours away, Kalshi traders have priced pop artist Olivia Dean as the favorite to win this year’s Grammy for Best New Artist.

The British pop star is priced at 78% in the Best New Artist Grammy market, well ahead of her fellow nominees.

Dean kicked off her breakout year in February with “It Isn’t Perfect But It Might Be,” a song for the British rom-com Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy. It only reached No. 36 on the UK Singles’ charts. The movie, however, became the largest-grossing British film of the year, putting her in the spotlight.

The following September, Dean released her hit album The Art of Loving, which peaked at No. 25 on the Billboard 200 album chart. Her single “Man I Need” went viral the following month. The video has racked up more than 45 million views on YouTube. Billboard named her ‘Rookie of the Year’ in its 2025 wrap-up of the year’s greatest pop stars.

The second most likely to take home the award, according to Kalshi traders, is R&B singer Leon Thomas. He is priced at 13% in the Best New Artist Grammy market. Thomas released the hit single “Mutt,” from his studio album of the same name, that made it to No. 12 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. Thomas received six Grammy nominations this year including for Best R&B Album, Song and Performance.

Artist Alex Warren is priced at just 3% on the Best New Artist Grammy nod market. Billboard named Warren the Top New Artist of the year. He picked up a Moonman at the 2025 MTV Video Music Awards for Best New Artist, and a TikTok Award for Breakthrough Artist.

The 68^th Grammy Awards will be given out on Sunday at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The awards will be broadcast live starting at 8 p.m. Eastern/5 p.m. Pacific on CBS, and available to stream on Paramount+.

The annual music awards will also feature live performances from artists like ROSÉ, Bruno Mars, and Tyler, the Creator. Traders on one Kalshi market are predicting there will be a few surprise performances during Sunday’s Grammy Awards broadcast from artists such as Lana Del Rey priced at 49%, Ariana Grande at 27%, Olivia Rodrigo at 20%, and Bad Bunny at 35%.

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