The 68th Annual Grammy Awards take place this Sunday at the Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, and Kalshi traders are already pricing some pretty clear favorites for this year’s top awards.
Song of the Year
The Song of the Year market has HUNTR/X’s “Golden,” written by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, 24 Ido, and Teddy for the animated Netflix film KPop Demon Hunters, as the favorite at 72%. Kendrick Lamar’s “luther” follows at 12%, and Bad Bunny’s “DtMF” is priced at 6%.
HUNTR/X’s hit song has already won a Golden Globe for Best Original Song – Motion Picture, and became the first K-pop song to receive an Oscar nomination for Best Original Song for the 2026 Academy Awards in March. The Netflix film also received an Oscar nomination for Best Animated Feature.
Album of the Year
Bad Bunny topped Spotify’s Wrapped Global Top Lists for 2025 and now leads the market for Album of the Year. Traders priced Bad Bunny’s DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS chances of winning the Grammy at 55%, with Kendrick Lamar’s GNX at 26% and Lady Gaga’s MAYHEM at 15%.
New Artist
British singer and songwriter Olivia Dean had a breakout year for her music career in 2025. She won the top spot on Triple J’s Hottest 100 of 2025 in Australia, and had one of her hits appear on the KPop Demon Hunters soundtracks. Billboard also named her Rookie of the Year in its recap of 2025’s biggest pop stars. Traders believe she’ll cap it off with a Grammy win for Best New Artist on Sunday.
Dean is currently most likely to win the Grammy at 67%, followed by Leon Thomas at 25% and Alex Warren at 4%.
Record of the Year
Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “luther” lead the Record of the Year market at 54%. “luther” set the record for the longest-running No. 1 hit on Billboard’s Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs chart at 27 weeks. Lamar also headlined the 2025 Super Bowl halftime show in 2025.
Last year, he swept all five of his Grammy nominations, including Song of the Year and Record of the Year. That dominance makes Lamar the clear favorite heading into Sunday’s ceremony.
ROSÉ and Bruno Mars’ “APT.” is the second most likely to win Record of the Year at 16%, and Bad Bunny’s “DtMF” is priced at 14%.
The 68th Grammy Awards hosted by Trevor Noah airs live at 8 p.m. Eastern/5 p.m. Pacific on CBS, and will also be available to stream on Paramount+.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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